1 BB/100 or 2 BB/100

[ms101]

This has probably been hacked to death and I've read and searched the forums for an answer. Please feel free to paste link and let that be the end of it. I've read all about new people coming on the boards and posting a question that's been covered a zillion times. I've read Homer's posts and others on confidence intervals. They don't quite answer this.

Here's the question:

I've got over 100K histories in pokertracker for HH 30/60, 15/30, 10/20. I'm at 1.1 BB/100 avg. all.

I've read about 2-3 BB/100. My VPIP is 19.09. Do I need more HH? Is 2-3 BB/100 achievable? Do many players have 2-3BB/100 for 100K hands?

Finally, is it possible to have 100K hands for 1 BB/100 but actually be a 2 BB/100 player?

Thanks in advance.

[Kaz The Original]

It's probably a few essential postflop adjustments.

[highland]

[ QUOTE ]

Finally, is it possible to have 100K hands for 1 BB/100 but actually be a 2 BB/100 player?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, but not likely. You should be able to get the standard error of the mean by dividing your std dev. by sqrt(1000) (about 31).
So, if you're standard deviation is about 15 per 100, the standard deviation of 100k hands for you is .5. Thus, if you really are a 2BB/100 player, and you play 100k hands, about 5% of the time you'll be 2+ standard deviations away from the real mean, 2.5% of the time you'll be 1BB/100 or worse.

cheers,
highland

[La Brujita]

Highland,

Thanks for this info. I know it has been posted before and sorry for the very very basic question but do you know off hand the percentage of time you will be 1 deviation from the mean, .5 from mean etc.

Sorry if question is stupid.

As for the op, my suggestion is post all your stats and have people take a look.

Best Regards

[JAA]

If you post some of your other stats, I bet some of the wiser people on this forum will be able to identify where any leaks in your game are, if you're interested.

- Jags

Edit: Spellcheck

[highland]

[ QUOTE ]
Highland,

Thanks for this info. I know it has been posted before and sorry for the very very basic question but do you know off hand the percentage of time you will be 1 deviation from the mean, .5 from mean etc.


[/ QUOTE ]

The chance that you will be within the following standard deviations of the mean:

1: 68%
2: 95%
3: 99.7%

This was an interesting question, because I couldn't remember why we always looked this stuff up in a table in the appendix, and it turns out that it's because the solution is an integral whose result
"can[not] be expressed in terms of finite additions, subtractions, multiplications, and root extractions, and so both must be either computed numerically or otherwise approximated". The table was a much better alternative to drawing all those darn skinny rectangles :P.

http://mathworld.wolfram.com/NormalDistribution.html

[La Brujita]

Thanks for this. It looks like you have a big brain highland. Unfortunately I only got the regular size.