JJ, flop question against a TAG

sexypanda · #1 03-02-2005, 01:35 AM

UTG is pretty loose passive, UTG+1 is a TAG.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 caps, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero folds

What do you think?

mr pink · #2 03-02-2005, 01:43 AM

i'd probably pop this flop and try and get it heads up with the TAG, not sure if that's right though. if he 3-bets it, i'd call. you'd be getting like 18.5 to 1 and try and spike a jack... other than that i'm done with this one on the turn UI.

PotatoStew · #3 03-02-2005, 01:43 AM

Considering it's capped preflop by an EP TAG, the fold is probably good, IMO.

Harv72b · #4 03-02-2005, 01:47 AM

Utterly standard against a TAG who capped OOP preflop. You're not up against QQ often enough to make it worth taking a shot on the flop.

PotatoStew · #5 03-02-2005, 01:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i'd probably pop this flop and try and get it heads up with the TAG, not sure if that's right though. if he 3-bets it, i'd call. you'd be getting like 18.5 to 1 and try and spike a jack... other than that i'm done with this one on the turn UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

18.5 to 1 isn't good enough to try for one of two Jacks, if you're only planning on seeing one more card, is it? Plus, the PF cap may mean KK and then you have to discount the Jack outs a little bit, I would think.

mr pink · #6 03-02-2005, 01:52 AM

with implied odds i think it's fine. you'll pick up at least another 3 BBs or 6 small bets when he bets into you on the turn and you raise and he check/calls the river. the big blind might call another 2 cold though as well, you never really know.

i'm not discounting any jacks b/c he might have a set. even then, it'd be like .1 of an out.

Harv72b · #7 03-02-2005, 01:56 AM

The problem there is, what do you do when you spike a J on the turn, raise, and then get 3-bet? The reverse implied odds are even greater when villain does have KK (or AA, and catches his own 2-outer on the river).

Regardless, even assuming UTG overcalls the flop (big assumption), Hero would be getting 14.5:1 to shoot for a 22:1 draw. Dems very bad odds, and a TAG isn't going to pay off enough when he's beat to make up for the difference.

EDIT: I see you're talking about raising/calling a 3-bet. A TAG probably won't 3-bet this flop, especially if he has TPTK or better. He'll wait to punish Hero on the turn or river. Even still, Hero is not getting 17.5:1 odds; he's getting 15.5:3, since Hero will be putting 3 more bets into the pot, winning the pot outright only very rarely, and almost certainly forcing UTG out (unless UTG has a baby set or is an extraordinarily bad player).

sexypanda · #8 03-02-2005, 01:58 AM

My thoughts were that I really couldn't put him on a hand I'm ahead and I haven't played with him enough to know if he could fold queens (if that's in fact what he had, which is like 30% if I put him on the AA-QQ, AK range). I also thought that the odds to flop a jack (even including implied odds) weren't nearly enough. I'm usually very agressive, and this play seemed a little weak so I'm interested in your input. Thanks for the responses so far.

mr pink · #9 03-02-2005, 02:06 AM

if i spike a jack on the turn and get 3-bet, i'm capping. it's not even worth factoring in improbability of set over set.

if utg coldcalls the flop raise, and utg+1 just calls as well, the pot will bet 19.5 small bets, not 14.5.

if utg folds and the TAG 3-bets, you'll be looking at 18.5

if utg folds, and the TAG just calls the raise, you're still getting a look at the turn and probably the river.

ErrantNight · #10 03-02-2005, 02:09 AM

nice laydown.