Bet this river with AA?

Grendel · #1 02-25-2005, 12:51 PM

Here's a specific hand that illustrates general questions I have about value betting the river...

The table is loose, but not exteremely so. I hadn't seen this many people call to the river before.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 3 folds, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

River: (12.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero...?

I think maybe this is a dangerous situation to value bet because the top flop card paired, yes? But then again, the pot is huge and I have a lot of juicy callers tagging along who will likely call again...

Also, how much does the fact that I have four opponents weigh in favor of value betting here (more callers), versus against it (greater chance of a 10 out there)?

Thanks,
-Grendel

bakku · #2 02-25-2005, 12:55 PM

You have to bet this river, a lot of worse hands will call but not bet.

Sir Limps Alot · #3 02-25-2005, 01:14 PM

Bet the river if you get raised call and showdown.
Flush draw did not make it so probably 1 of your callers was chasing the flush.
No raise when the J hit so I would say no str8 unless he was trying to slow play the nuts.
If you bet and someone raises call it down.

I think the only issue with a bet is if the river gets three bet what do you do then?
Do you fold your aces knowing your beat?

If you check then the most you will pay is probably 2 bets to showdown.

Fat Nicky · #4 02-25-2005, 01:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the only issue with a bet is if the river gets three bet what do you do then?
Do you fold your aces knowing your beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

It it was 2 more back to me at the river, i'd fold.

groo · #5 02-25-2005, 02:03 PM

I love this question. I love it because this type of hand makes me nervous. It makes me nervous because I get crushed on it so often.

Obvioulsy at least one caller was drawing to the flush, and the straight isn't an issue unless it's being slow played, but that doesn't seem likely for a loose player (were all players involved loose or just the table in general?) The real fear for me is the T's.

I don't know if this play is right or not, and it probably isn't (that's why I get hurt here so often), but I bet and reluctantly call one raise. If it's two bets back to me I swear loudly at the computer and accept defeat (fold).

The other option is to check, but that saves you one bet at best and it allows someone else to control the hand (unless you're going to check raise, which sounds fool hardy to me).

I'll be looking forward to seeing more responses.

Entity · #6 02-25-2005, 02:05 PM

Bet and call one, bet and fold to two. Pretty safe line in a pot this large.

Oh yeah, 1/2 hands go in the microlimit forum, FWIW.

Rob

Grendel · #7 02-25-2005, 02:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Oh yeah, 1/2 hands go in the microlimit forum, FWIW.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aw, crap. Just got so used to posting here, sorry.

Is the main factor at work here the large pot? If it were half as big, would it still be best to bet? (assuming 4 opponents still... maybe my "check" button got stuck)

groo, I like way you put it, that checking the river saves me one bet at best. Maybe I'm just getting too afraid of the "oh crap, there's the raise" value bets on the river.

-Grendel

sean c · #8 02-25-2005, 02:50 PM

The river bet is for value pot size makes no difference.

LinusKS · #9 02-25-2005, 03:55 PM

I check-call the river.

I don't know what all is out there.

At least one flush draw, maybe two. Overcards, some crappy pairs.

I think there's a real good chance someone's holding a ten.

The problem is, I don't see a lot of calls here, unless you're beat - in which case, you probably get raised.

The only hand I see calling your bet (and losing) is the J.

If you figure the ten (or some other winning hand) is there 35% (I don't know the actual number - feel free to come up with one), 35% you get raised (and call, I assume), for -2BB.

If you figure there's a J out there 100% of the time, that still gives you a small net loss over time.

What clinches it for me though, is that very often if this pot starts to look like it's going to be checked around, somebody will take a stab at it with a losing hand, meaning you still get extra bets when you win, while cutting your losses when you don't.

If I'm wrong, please let me know.