A Set, a Donkey, and a Passive Villain

[Tilt]

All friendly, helpful, and politely delivered comments are appreciated.

Reads: I have been there 3 orbits, and entered and won one pot with no showdown. Villain 1, whom I will call Donkey, has been losing alot of money at the table since I have been there by raising every other hand and making pot sized bets to the river with second pair. Somehow when i arrived he was at $200 stack but has fallen precipitously since.

The other villain I have seen alot of and have a good read on him as very passive. If he is raising at all watch out, but his calls indicate weak pairs or draws.

Pokerroom 100NL

Seat 1: UTG+1 ($115.50 in chips)
Seat 2: Donkey ($107.00 in chips)
Seat 3: Hero [9D,9H] ($123.00 in chips)
Seat 4: MP 2 ($88.00 in chips)
Seat 5: Passive Villain ($126.00 in chips)
Seat 6: Button ($139.00 in chips)
Seat 7: SB ($28.00 in chips)
Seat 8: BB($54.00 in chips)
Seat 10: UTG ($60.00 in chips)


ANTES/BLINDS
SB posts blind ($1), BB posts blind ($2).

Hero has 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

PRE-FLOP
UTG folds, UTG +1 folds, Donkey bets $6, Hero calls $6, MP 1 folds, Passive Villain calls $6, everyone else folds.

FLOP (Pot = $21) T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Donkey bets $16, Hero calls $16, Passive villain calls $16

Its a great flop for me. But I don't want to chase the passive villain out of the hand or let the Donkey off the hook. I expect the passive villain to call here with any pair, but not if I raise. And he will call the Donkey down with even a strong second pair. So I call in the hopes that I can get them both committed and risk the draw. Mistake?

TURN (Pot = 69) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Donkey bets $16, Hero raises to $40, Passive villain folds, Donkey raises all-in to $85, Hero calls.

I bet to induce the all-in, but am still hoping the other villain calls. Anyone just call here?

[wbrumfiel]

I wouldn't not with double flush draws on the board. Sure its nice to get more money in, but whats to say he isnt playing JQs and the river catches his suit... or his str8

[kurto]

I wouldn't slowplay this with 2 players and a flush draw on the board. Headsup, maybe...

I hope the twist of the story isn't that the donkey had pocket 10s or Aces.

[Tilt]

Adding some thoughts...

Lets say that one of them has a straight and/or flush draw, and one of them has TPGK or 2 pair.

After the turn, TPGK is drawing dead. The OESFD has fewer outs than he thinks. And he may call with just one draw and not both.

I think the donkey is going all-in at the river no matter what falls. I have no idea which player has a draw and which player has a pair. An overset is an unlikely possibility.

Is it really so risky to just call? Isn't the money going into the pot adding to my EV at this point?

[NiceCatch]

I say you played it fine. You extracted some money out of him on the flop, and layed the hammer on the turn. That's generally the strategy I'll use with passive drawers. The interesting thing with passive types/calling stations is that they will often call your big turn bet if they have TPTK or two-pair for sure, and possibly if they have just a pair... and fold draws. That's exactly what you want Passive Villain to do in this situation. I think your raise is optimal against the Passive Villain. Maybe the only thing you might want to change is simply to min-raise (i.e. raise to $32). This will almost surely fold his draw, but may be just low enough to get a call out of, say, middle pair or TPNK. Of course that's just speculation.

Good play.

[Richie Rich]

With two possible flush draws on the turn, as well as a possible str8 draw, you have to raise on the turn with what is most likely the best hand.

[Tilt]

thanks for all your comments.

What made me wonder is that the river was a 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Donkey turned over AJ, and the Passive Villain started chatting about how thank god he folded before that river. Including what he said he had, I was in very good shape:

Js Ah 0 0.00 42 100.00 0 0.00 0.000
9d 9h 32 76.19 10 23.81 0 0.00 0.762
Kc Jc 10 23.81 32 76.19 0 0.00 0.238

I would have given him odds to call had i just called, though. If only the Donkey had bet more on the turn I think I could have flat called.

[DoomSlice]

Well, you would want him to call IF and only if you knew you'd get a club that pairs the board... only 2 of his outs. That leaves him with 7 outs left, are you comfortable giving him 7 outs to the flush? He is definately getting odds to call the $16 to hit that flush, and you're not getting any more money from him if no flush card hits.

So, let's assume you're right about villain getting it in either way. Now the trick is to maximize value from Passive Villain, if you call the 16, you will only get PV's money 2/42 times, you will lose the entire pot 7/42 times, and you will win no additional money the rest of the time. This is obviously not ideal. Mandatory turn raise.