Trusting reads after a PF 3 bet

[gaming_mouse]

The villain here was loose passive. Over 60% VPIP, but only seemed to know how to call. After 2-3 orbits, he might have raised PF once or twice, but I'd never see him 3 bet before, so I put him on JJ-AA, AK.

Does anyone think I need to buy a skirt? If so, what would you have done? Is 20-30 hands enough for me to make a read this strong about his 3 betting standards?


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP1 calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (14.33 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (8.66 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9.66 BB

[private joker]

I'm not too fond of this. Why did you cap if you put him on JJ-AA and AK? Just call his 3-bet and hope for a low flop. When the turn brought a K, you should keep betting and fold to a raise. He might even dump QQ, though that would be super weak. But if he puts you on AK, he would. But checking this turn allows him to bet with anything.

I'm not saying you weren't behind, but checking the turn leaves you in too precarious a position. I'd even be happier with checking the river if he just called the turn bet.

[Kaz The Original]

2-3 orbits is not a long enough time for me to trust my read here. I see the showdown.

[einbert]

I would've bet the turn and gone from there. Check/folding when the first overcard comes up doesn't seem like a good strategy to me. If he raises the turn, I fold. If he calls then I check the river and decide if I want to call.

[Rafael_Luiz]

By checking the turn when the king falls you decide to forfeit the pot. I think you have to bet there and fold to a raise. Is TT or 99 out of the question? If he had QQ-AA he probably would have raised the flop. So you have to be sure of his AK before you check/fold the turn.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not too fond of this. Why did you cap if you put him on JJ-AA and AK? Just call his 3-bet and hope for a low flop. When the turn brought a K, you should keep betting and fold to a raise. He might even dump QQ, though that would be super weak. But if he puts you on AK, he would. But checking this turn allows him to bet with anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. My play here was just grotesque. I should have bet and folded to a raise. I just thought I was being so clever with my read. Anyway, here is what happened....

After I folded, just for fun (and b/c I deserved it), the villain turned up his cards.... T9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], for a flush draw and nothing else. I folded the best hand.