Is this hyper-aggressive?

garion888 · #1 02-19-2005, 03:45 AM

So my question is "Is this Hyper-Agressive?"

MP3 is tight but seems overly agressive VPIP-19% PFR-11%...
UTG+1 is LA-P and MP2 is unknown.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, 3 folds, BB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

It's a loose game and i call the raise because i think MP3 raises a wide range of hands that i'm beating right now. Break even is winning a little less than 20% of the time right?

Flop: (10.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, MP3 raises, BB folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

I like this flop save the flush draw and i think i'm winning...i only gotta win 25% of the time now. I set up pokerstove with my hand vs. AA-TT and any broadway vs. two random hands and here's what it said...
[ QUOTE ]

37,189,155 games

Board: 4c 5d 7c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 31.4169 % [ 00.31 00.00 ] { 9d9c }
Hand 2: 21.0262 % [ 00.21 00.00 ] { AA-TT, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 3: 23.7741 % [ 00.23 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 23.7828 % [ 00.23 00.01 ] { random }

[/ QUOTE ]

I know what Ed said in the "Two Overpair Hands" section of SSH but I thought if i could get rid of UTG+1 or MP1 my winning chances were that much better. Also if MP3 is trying for a free card to make his flush I wanna charge him. I don't wanna be giving free cards on the turn trying to check raise if my card isn't scary.

Here's my equity if i get UTG+1 or MP2 to fold.

[ QUOTE ]

78,626,460 games

Board: 4c 5d 7c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 43.8927 % [ 00.43 00.00 ] { 9d9c }
Hand 2: 27.4750 % [ 00.27 00.00 ] { AA-TT, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 3: 28.6323 % [ 00.28 00.01 ] { random }

[/ QUOTE ]

And for pie in the sky dreams lets say they both folded...

[ QUOTE ]

119,272,972 games

Board: 4c 5d 7c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 63.1865 % [ 00.62 00.01 ] { 9d9c }
Hand 2: 36.8135 % [ 00.36 00.01 ] { AA-TT, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }

[/ QUOTE ]
I also figured out what my immediate EV would be for the key situations...

If I just call the 2 cold and UTG+1 and MP2 call it's 4.44SB
If I 3-bet and everyone calls it's 5.01SB
If I 3-bet and UTG+1 folds it's 6.87SB
If I 3-bet and MP2 folds it's 7.31SB
If I 3-bet and both UTG+1 and MP2 folds it's 9.95SB.

So even if i raise and the worst possible thing happens(everyone calls) I make a little. But if I raise and get a single fold I make an at least 1 extra big bet. If I raise and get two folds I make 2.5 extra big bets.

Someone lemme know if any my math is wrong.

I'll post the rest of the hand after everyone who wants to weighs in.

Reef · #2 02-19-2005, 04:45 AM

well brother *I'm buzzed*, this is either a 3-bet situation or a fold situation. If this is 1/2- I say .. "you fucker, why are you raising A6" and I 3-bet. So um.. ya.

Get out those [censored] flush draws too

detruncate · #3 02-19-2005, 05:31 AM

You're sure as hell not folding this pf for 1 more bet. If it was worth calling the first time around, it's even more correct when it comes back to you. An alternate line would be raising pf.

You have to think that MP3 will auto-bet the flop given your read, so the c/r attempt makes sense. Once he's bet into, he'd probably be happy with the opportunity to face the field with 2 cold holding most of his pf raising hands (if his pf aggression carries over to post-flop play). The board is such that MP2's lead could mean a lot of things, relatively few of them particularly bad for you. I like the 3-bet. You'll often have the best hand, and BD straight and flush draws will bail you out some of the rest of the time.

garion888 · #4 02-19-2005, 05:04 PM

bump to see what the daytime people think

morberg · #5 02-19-2005, 05:25 PM

No way you can fold PF to one bet. Never.

As for the 3-bet, I like it. You can probably rule out 77 from your opponents or else they would've (should've) capped. 44 and 55 are possible in MP3 if he's overly aggressive pre-flop (I can't see a tight player raising PF with 63 or 86).

I'd lead the turn with a bet.

NateDog · #6 02-19-2005, 05:33 PM

I open-raise PF quite often here, dependat on table texture.
[ QUOTE ]
So my question is "Is this Hyper-Agressive?"

MP3 is tight but seems overly agressive VPIP-19% PFR-11%...

[/ QUOTE ]

The PFT # is totally dependant on sample size, and he may not be as aggressive as you think. Given that though,do you still think you are ahead here? I see that you have a small mathematical edge, but you are also OOP, and part of your edge numbers wise, comes from catching runner-runner to fill your 1 card non-nut straight.

The turn will drastically affect your equity here.

Just my .02

Nate

Carmine · #7 02-19-2005, 07:04 PM

I think you have the best hand here quite often and an arguement for 3-betting can be made. However your hand is very vulnerable against three other players. I think I would be satisfied that it got raised and leave it at that. When the safe turn card falls then it's time to open up. I do like the initial C/R attempt to get some of the overs to face two cold but by the time it's back to you, you are the one facing two. I call and see the turn.

The above was my initial thought but changed my mind after the last period. I like the 3-bet. You make UTG+1 face three and MP2 face two. Holding the possible best hand go for it. If someone is on the flush draw they will love you for it, but so be it.

Carmine · #8 02-19-2005, 07:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I open-raise PF quite often here, Dependant on table texture.
[ QUOTE ]
So my question is "Is this Hyper-Agressive?"

MP3 is tight but seems overly agressive VPIP-19% PFR-11%...

[/ QUOTE ]

The PFT # is totally dependant on sample size, and he may not be as aggressive as you think. Given that though,do you still think you are ahead here? I see that you have a small mathematical edge, but you are also OOP, and part of your edge numbers wise, comes from catching runner-runner to fill your 1 card non-nut straight.

The turn will drastically affect your equity here.

Just my .02

Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

Nate don't you think it is worth the 3-bet if it maximizes Hero's chances of winning this. With the opportunity to get two opponents to fold their possible overs. I'm concerned about a dangerous turn card also, but if those overs are not in the hand to pair up even better.

NateDog · #9 02-19-2005, 08:19 PM

I think with the situation our hero is in, he has to 3 bet it. The only player that MAY drop here is caught in the middle, but he led the flop.

tytygoodnuts · #10 02-19-2005, 09:13 PM

I think this is a clear call. You aren't going to be getting any flush draws out no matter what you do! This hand is a lot like the TT hand in the two overpair section of SSH. Your reasoning for going against what Miller reccomends is quite a stretch. Why not call here with your EXTREMELY vulnerable hand? If a good card comes you can bust out a huge check-raise. If a scare card comes you can check and see what the other guys do.