AQs in EP on big flop: GSBDF

DavidC · #1 02-17-2005, 09:17 AM

I think the Pre-flop, Turn, and River are just fine. The flop is what I'm having the problem with.

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Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero calls, CO raises, SB calls, UTG+2 3-bets, Hero calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: (14.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero calls, CO calls, SB calls.

River: (18.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, CO calls, SB folds, UTG+2 calls.

Final Pot: 24.50 BB

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Flop:
How many solid outs do I have?
-3 for the gutshot
-1.5 for the BDF (I'd say that the stealth factor of this makes up for its shortfall (that it could include a paired board))

4.5 so far...

How many partial outs do I have?
-Nearly 1 for the gutshot: King of Spades. (0.75)
-Maybe half an out for my ace and queen. (1)

So I give myself perhaps 6.25 outs.

Should I have considered raising here?

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Explanation of Turn Call:

12 outs, .5 outs for the ace, 1 out for the queen. - 0.25 outs each for the two flush cards that pair the board. So about 13 outs.

This gives me 28% equity, and I'm 25% of the players. It's therefore 12% profit to push here, if everyone calls. However, I could easily knock others out with a raise, and get hurt because of my lack of equity when the pot is more short-handed. Additionally, I'd love to have these guys with me on the river to pay me when I hit and it's nearly 100% profit.

--Dave.

topspin · #2 02-17-2005, 10:15 AM

Got reads? (I hear they're helpful when you're playing pokar...)

I think the flop is close, which is why I'm complaining a bit about not having reads. You obviously can't fold. Since CO cold-capped preflop, assuming he's reasonable you have to put him on a big pair or at worst AKs, and every hand except AKs loves this flop. (AK[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is probably fairly cheerful too.) So raising is likely to be met either with a 3-bet or at least a call from him.

However, if CO 3-bets, you do get to face SB with 3 cold and he may fold a hand that has you reverse-dominated. It may also slow down UTG+2, who could just have big overcards, but since he'll have 2:26 odds, it's unlikely he'll fold.

On the other hand, you're still drawing, and most of your draws are to monsters (the nut backdoor flush and the nut straight) that don't mind additional company. With the pot this big, you can't really protect your hand much against anyone, so it's not clear you'll be able to clean up overcard outs with a raise. You'd also prefer not to have the flop capped and have to pay too much to see the turn.

Personally I'd just call like you did for the reasons above, but I don't think it's much of a mistake either way.

--

As an aside, you didn't ask about preflop, but I'll mention anyway that I don't like the 3-bet unless you've got a read on UTG+2 as having a tendency to raise light. AQs is not usually a hand I like to isolate an EP raiser with.

Vaftrudner · #3 02-17-2005, 10:30 AM

Read Ed? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] /v

ArturiusX · #4 02-17-2005, 10:50 AM

I'd probably raise the turn for value.

topspin · #5 02-17-2005, 11:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd probably raise the turn for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Facing the field with two cold doesn't strike me as getting a lot of value ...

DavidC · #6 02-17-2005, 11:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Got reads? (I hear they're helpful when you're playing pokar...)

[/ QUOTE ]

I appologize. You're absolutely right.

The guy that bet into me:
LA-A, three-bet the flop with TPTK. (This indicates that it may very well get capped on this flop.)

The guy on the SB was a gamblor! (LA-P)

The guy on my direct left wasn't quite TA-A at the time, but is now. I think he was sLA-A at the time (maybe 15 hands).

My reads on him:
-slow kk op vs 3bf, bt
-k thru r tpgk, b to r tpgkgs

He slowwed down with KK (an overpair) vs a 3-bet on the flop, but then he lead the turn.

He checked through the river with top pair and a good kicker (j?) after leading the way.

DavidC · #7 02-17-2005, 11:29 AM

Thanks for the comments, including the comment on the pf.

You make a very good point.

The guy was LA-A, but I wasn't really considering the raise as isolation (more of a value raise).

I was just getting ready to blast the hand... didn't stop to think about waiting for the flop.

I like facing the SB with 3 cold, using the guy with the legit hand as a weapon... but if CO raises, I know I'm in deep crap... but at least I'll know that my queen outs are probably useless.

--Dave.

DavidC · #8 02-17-2005, 11:31 AM

I agree with topspin. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

If you have something to say to refute the bottom of my post, though (the part where I explain the turn call), please do so.