Ex 7 from Flop quizzes in SSHE discussion (pp 271-272)

Greg J · #1 02-13-2005, 04:13 PM

Thanks to all that took the poll earlier. If you have not taken it yet please do so.

So, Ex 7 is in the lead. Here is basically what goes down in Ex 7 (I copied and pasted this from Nick's post):

SSHE hand, flop play nr 7:
Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
3 players limp, Hero limps, SB raises , BB and everyone else calls.

Flop: (12 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players) 
 SB bets , BB calls, First limper raises , 2 fold, Hero should raise

Reasons to stay in the hand: you are getting the odds. You are getting 16:2 (8:1) to call, and only need ~6:1. In truth you are probably getting better than that b/c of implied odds -- that is if you hit your hand you will get paid off while if you don't you don't have to pay them off. You have the gutshot, the BD flush, and an overcard ace.

So why raise? Raising can clean up A outs. It can also possibly get you a free card on the turn. Not only does it improve your chances of winning the pot (which is most important), but it can save you a bet along the way (which is not as important, but still very nice).

This is an ex I missed the first time I took the quiz. I now get it right -- but obviously have had some trouble with it. My guess is the reason we have troubel with this is that we look and only see a gutshot, see two bets to us, and intuitively think we don't have the odds. You generally don't call 2 bets with a gustshot. The thing in the example is that the pot is pretty big. It was raised preflop and had a bunch of guys calling. Also, we have more than a gutshot -- we have some other weak draws mixed in. This hand is obviously not a monster, but it is worth playing if you look closely.

This is a pretty good place to start. This is a post NickRoyale made comparing a hand he played to this example:

[ QUOTE ]
This is a hand I posted only a couple of days ago, as "Cold calling pt. 1". After reading the flop quiz in SSHE I have done a comparision to a hand there and analysed why the advice I got in the forum wasn't the same as Ed's advice in SSHE. I think the hands very much alike. Please compare and analyse my analysis.

My hand:
Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, Hero... raises?

Responses I got was: "raising the flop would be a serious mistake."

SSHE hand, flop play nr 7:
Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
3 players limp, Hero limps, SB raises , BB and everyone else calls.

Flop: (12 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players) 
 SB bets , BB calls, First limper raises , 2 fold, Hero... raises! (according to SSHE)

Analysis:
The pot sizes are about the same. My pot equity is about the same and there are 3 players in both pots. Both hands have a gut-shot draw with a backdoor flush and one overcard.

1. Hand two holds an ace as a better overcard, but hand one has a better kicker.

2. Hand two can make the nut flush, but the gut-shot is the main draw and a King high flush won't lose many pots, since in this case there can't be a four flush on the board at the river.

3. Hand one can go for a overcall, but at the same time hand two is more likely to get reraised since while SB could be betting only overcards, the raiser in hand two most often has the goods. A raise in hand two will also be more likely to fold other hands since the players will have to call 2 bets in that hand. Folding opponents is not good while drawing and besides have a very slim equity (both hands around 23%)

4. A advantage hand two has is that it has greater implied odds, not many will fear a straight when the 3 falls. EDIT: On the other hand hand two won't make the nut staight.

Would be happy to get some input. Do you see any additional differances? The differances I found seem small to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

A big difference, as drollie points out in response, is that this in this hand he is closing the action. However, the same general principal seems to apply: large pot, multiple weak draws.

Thought on this hand, or more generally this concept? Can someone provide another example that we can study -- or even develop a hypothetical (plausible one)?

Thanks

Ian M. · #2 02-13-2005, 04:29 PM

I think the main difference is that in the SSHE example, the raise is on the hero's right, so a reraise will successfully limit the field and fold higher Aces like AQ-A6, cleaning up the Ace outs. In Nick's example, the bet was on his left and raising probably would not clean up the overcard outs. Having said that, I don't think raising is a bad play if its a very passive table and theres a good chance of getting a free card on the turn.

SeeWillie · #3 02-14-2005, 12:40 AM

Good point, Ian. I think the position to the raiser and the fact that an A overcard is much better than a K are the two principal differences.

I also think in Nick's hand the draw - a Q - is more likely to give your opponents a redraw to a chop, or even an A high straight to beat you, since the broadway card are more likely to stick around.