AJo from the cutoff -- value bet the river?

meep_42 · #1 02-07-2005, 03:55 PM

(Shillx will kill me, but no reads - 4th hand at the table)

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

River: (9.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

-d

chief444 · #2 02-07-2005, 03:59 PM

I would.

sean c · #3 02-07-2005, 04:06 PM

I wouldn't.

sean c · #4 02-07-2005, 05:52 PM

I woudn't wasn't much of a post so here are my thoughts.In order for this to be a good value you bet you must get called by a worse hand. The two draws on the flop were flush and straight most likely OESD. The only possible hands weaker than yours that would call a river bet would be KJ a weak jack or possibly ace high. I think a C/R is more likely than an overcall in this spot without a read on UTG and MP1. If either had planned on C/R you will find out when you showdown. So no I do not think this is a good place for a value bet.

runa · #5 02-07-2005, 06:14 PM

Sure, fire one and see what happens.

shadow29 · #6 02-07-2005, 06:32 PM

Hell yeah dude.

I might fold to a c/r though, depending on the player.

Schizo · #7 02-07-2005, 06:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would.

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Ok, as stated earlier most likely draws are OESD which either made top pair or a straight on the turn. Flush is possible, but they won't call your river bet. If they hit the T off of the flop you are screwed, and if they hit the Queen you are done for. That is a lot of hands that beat you.

So if you bet, what hands will fold? Flush draws and maybe a pair of 4's. What hands will call? A weaker J might call gaining you an extra bet. But everything else will raise. And sometimes the raise could be a bluff (pretending to have a T), but that is rare at this level. If it was HU I could see this being profitable, but this is 3-way. I'm not sure I like the river bet. Care to explain Chief?

Schizo · #8 02-07-2005, 06:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hell yeah dude.

I might fold to a c/r though, depending on the player.

[/ QUOTE ]

What players would you fold to? I am assuming passive players only.

Don't you realize that just about any other holding out there beats you and this is 3-way? Why the river bet?

Shillx · #9 02-07-2005, 07:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hell yeah dude.

I might fold to a c/r though, depending on the player.

[/ QUOTE ]

You had best be.

meep_42 · #10 02-07-2005, 08:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, as stated earlier most likely draws are OESD which either made top pair or a straight on the turn. Flush is possible, but they won't call your river bet. If they hit the T off of the flop you are screwed, and if they hit the Queen you are done for. That is a lot of hands that beat you.

So if you bet, what hands will fold? Flush draws and maybe a pair of 4's. What hands will call? A weaker J might call gaining you an extra bet. But everything else will raise. And sometimes the raise could be a bluff (pretending to have a T), but that is rare at this level. If it was HU I could see this being profitable, but this is 3-way. I'm not sure I like the river bet. Care to explain Chief?

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my thinking. If they made it this far, they have probably got a draw or a ten and were trying to get me on the river.

-d