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#1
02-05-2005, 07:14 PM
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Preflop matchup matrix: win, lose, tie probabilities
I was wondering if anyone had a good reference for the matrix of 169x169 preflop matchup possibilities, listing win, lose, and tie probabilities for each.
I have a reference which lists equity for each of the matchups, but this isn't quite what I'm looking for. I'd like to be able to handle the case of split pots properly in an analysis I'm doing, so I need to know probability of ties, which is not possible by looking at an equity matrix. Anticipating the first reply, I know twodimes.net can give me any specific matchup, like AcKd Ts9s. What I want to know is the enumeration of matchups for the 169 preflop hands: pairs, suited, and offsuit hands. In each of those is the weighted probability of each of the possible specific matchups which fit the category for the preflop hands. eastbay 
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#2
02-05-2005, 08:11 PM
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Re: Preflop matchup matrix: win, lose, tie probabilities
Don't forget that the odds for AdKd vs. QsQd are different than those for AcKc vs. QsQd, etc. even though they both count as AKs vs. QQ. Same with AdAc vs. KdKc (different odds than AdAc vs. KhKs) So if you want precision it can't really be only the 169 hands.
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#3
02-05-2005, 08:29 PM
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Re: Preflop matchup matrix: win, lose, tie probabilities
[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget that the odds for AdKd vs. QsQd are different than those for AcKc vs. QsQd, etc. even though they both count as AKs vs. QQ. Same with AdAc vs. KdKc (different odds than AdAc vs. KhKs) [/ QUOTE ] Sure. [ QUOTE ] So if you want precision it can't really be only the 169 hands. [/ QUOTE ] No, what I'm looking for is the weighted average of each of the possibilities. Think of it this way: If I say I want to know the win % of AA vs. any pair, I can do so by determining the win % against each possiblitity and weighting it by its likelihood. There is no loss of "precision." It is simply a different question. eastbay
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#4
02-06-2005, 09:20 AM
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Re: Preflop matchup matrix: win, lose, tie probabilities
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Don't forget that the odds for AdKd vs. QsQd are different than those for AcKc vs. QsQd, etc. even though they both count as AKs vs. QQ. Same with AdAc vs. KdKc (different odds than AdAc vs. KhKs) [/ QUOTE ] Sure. [ QUOTE ] So if you want precision it can't really be only the 169 hands. [/ QUOTE ] No, what I'm looking for is the weighted average of each of the possibilities. Think of it this way: If I say I want to know the win % of AA vs. any pair, I can do so by determining the win % against each possiblitity and weighting it by its likelihood. There is no loss of "precision." It is simply a different question. eastbay [/ QUOTE ] Why? You want to win money, not know "exact numbers." A couple of percentage points give a low margin of error. That margin is low enough to not affect your equity.
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#5
02-06-2005, 09:25 AM
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Re: Preflop matchup matrix: win, lose, tie probabilities
If you want useless info of starting hands v. random hands, here they are:
AA 0.85204 KK 0.82396 QQ 0.79925 JJ 0.77469 TT 0.75012 99 0.72057 88 0.69163 77 0.66236 AK 0.65751 AQ 0.64876 AJ 0.64021 66 0.63285 AT 0.63192 KQ 0.61942 A9 0.61275 KJ 0.61068 A8 0.6039 55 0.60325 KT 0.60251 A7 0.59377 QJ 0.58666 K9 0.58356 A5 0.58253 A6 0.58238 QT 0.57835 A4 0.57306 44 0.57023 A3 0.56439 Q9 0.55936 JT 0.55818 A2 0.55541 J9 0.53834 33 0.53693 T9 0.52156 T8 0.50375 22 0.50334 98 0.48773 97 0.47003 87 0.45772 86 0.43991 76 0.43085 75 0.41303 65 0.40742 64 0.38441
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#8
02-08-2005, 05:08 AM
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Re: Preflop matchup matrix: win, lose, tie probabilities
[ QUOTE ]
I have a reference which lists equity for each of the matchups [/ QUOTE ] Sorry I can't help you, but I would really like this equity matrix you have. Where can I obtain it? Thanks.
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