Being River ...3 betting/capping +EV or -EV?

[mtdoak]

Two hands where I had the a strong hand on the river, but not the nuts.

First hand:

BB was short on chips, so I figured he'd be going nuts with any flush on the river. However, given this situation again....whats my line if I am 3 bet? Check Raised? (Also, I realize It was stupid not the bet the turn)

Assuming the BB has any two suited cards, there are 29 combinations after the river of what cards he could have. 7 of them (AJ, A9, A8, A7, A4, A3, A2).

So, I'm ahead 75%% of the time (if he has the flush), giving my raise a EV of +1.5 BB...right?

What what if you assume a reasonable player here. What hands could they have (considering I have the KQs). Should I take short stack logic and assume desperation? What % should I assume he is bluffing?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (10.66 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.

River: (10.66 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls $1 (All-In).

Final Pot: 18.83 BB



Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, SB folds.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

Whats my line on the river here? I have top two pair, and only two possible straights exsist (7-5 and 10-9). Should I give him credit for a raggedy two pair and 3 bet?

[private joker]

Hand 1 seems fine; if he had the nut flush that sucks.

Hand 2 -- I think you'll seee JT a lot here, so just call the raise. Do you see that JT makes a straight?

[mtdoak]

oopsy, forgot about that in my writeup.