Just not sure what to do with this one...

[Telemann]

Sorry, no reads on our villain. I'm not too good at this readin' stuff yet.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.75.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (12 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO folds, Button folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 10 BB

[Buck_65]

I'd probably call his raise and call a bet on the river. A lot of players at these limits will bluff any scary looking board. You're probably ahead here more often than you think.

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

Seeing that UTG+1 checkraised the turn makes me want to check the turn through and call one on the river, but I'd probably bet it anyway (because I suck). Given that you're heads up and you are probably way ahead/way behind and that's not likely to change, I think checking behind on the turn and calling one bet on the river is the right play.

[Entity]

The fold is fine. This line is almost always (like 95%) KK, AA, or AK.

If the guy isn't a light raiser/loose preflop, you should probably fold preflop.

Rob

[MarkGritter]

Has the table been loose? If so, I probably would have reraised preflop with AQs and wouldn't fold to the turn raise. UTG+1 probably should check-raise with a king on the flop instead of check-call. He could easily have AQ, AJ, AT or worse at a loose table and may have been on a flush draw after the river: his raise is getting 4:1 odds.

At a tighter table, the preflop raise still doesn't imply he has a K to me, and I don't see a lot of benefit in him slowplaying after everybody but you has folded.

You're being given 5.5:1 odds to call to a showdown. Even with a significant chance of a split pot I think it's worth seeing; you only need to win 20% to make it worthwhile.

[MarkGritter]

Suppose he's playing by the SSHE tight hand table and raises AA, AK, AQ, AJs and KK only from early position (ignoring QQ-99 which he would presumably fold.)

(NOTE: oops, screwed this up the first time with AAK board instead of AKK.)

You have AQ and the board shows another AKK.

Number of possible hands are:

AA: 1
AK: 4
AQ: 6
AJs: 2
KK: 1
total: 14

# of hands you win: 2 (2/14 * 12BB = 1.7EV)
# of hands you tie: 6 (6/14 * 6BB = 2.6EV)
# of hands you lose: 8 (0BB)

There's only a 50% chance he's ahead under these assumptions. The EV is 3.3BB, enough to get to a showdown. It's probably more if he's looser, but I didn't count the possible flush draw, or the split if a K shows up, or the remote possibility of a river A giving you a better hand.

[Entity]

You can't do a simple bayesian statistical analysis to determine which hands are most likely, because AQs and AJs aren't checkraising this turn as often as KK and AK and AA are.

There's 1 combo of AA out there, 1 combo of KK, 4 combos of AK, and two combos of AQs and AJs.

This fold is fine.

Rob

[MarkGritter]

Thanks, I completely zoned on it being a check-raise, not just a raise. (And thanks for pointing out that I was calculating with the wrong board... duh.)