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  #1  
Old 01-16-2005, 08:58 PM
AngelicPenguin AngelicPenguin is offline
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Default Flush draws and pot equity

I was re-reading SSH and looking for specific examples of flush draws and I had some questions that I thought maybe I could get some clarification on.

First, with strong drawing hands like AK [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] with two [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]'s on the flop, I understand fully why you would bet and raise. Miller talks about cleaning up outs, so that if you don't make your flush you could make a baby A or K fold that would beat you if you spike your pair. In addition, he talks about how if, for example, you are against 5 opponents, then your flush will come in 36% of the time, so you are also betting for value because your pot equity is larger than your share.

So, how about this example. I have 76 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] from LP vs 6 opponents in an unraised pot (7 SB) The flop comes K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Scenario #1: There is a bet from EP and it is called around to me. I assume that I should raise here because my pot equity should be somewhere around 30%+ and I'm contributing nowhere near that.
Scenario #2: It is checked around to my immediate right, who bets. I should simply call here, right, since with my draw I don't want to force out players by making them cold call and being up against a probable pair.
Scenario #3: A bet comes from first position, several calls, then a raise, with several more cold callers before me. Should I 3-bet since I think most of the time my pot equity is still good here? Or do I assume that I could be up against a bigger flush draw and call it down?

So, I guess my long winded question is, if I have an average flush draw (little flush cards), should I push the flop (3-bets, caps) as long as I don't force a lot of players out, or if I'm played back at, should I simply call, making the assumption that he may have a better flush draw and my pot equity maybe virtually nothing? Assuming no reads of course. I know there is also the idea of raising for a free card, but let's assume for these questions that the players are aggressive and that won't work. I'm trying to determine whether or not I'm getting good value bets in the different scenarios. I'd like to play these pretty good draws optimally and not keep thinking "should I pump this flop, or give him credit for the flush draw as well."

Obviously, a lot of it is situational, but I was hoping to solicit some opinions.
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  #2  
Old 01-16-2005, 09:24 PM
cold_cash cold_cash is offline
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Default Re: Flush draws and pot equity

With a flush draw I'm usually concerned with making the play that will get the most money in the pot, assuming I have enough callers.

If I think I can win by other means (making a pair), and the pot is relatively large, I would like to make the play that will eliminate the most opponents.

So,

Scenario 1 - raise-a-roo
Scenario 2 - call
Scenario 3 - I would 3-bet. Flush over flush sucks, but it doesn't happen very often.

I usually "pump this flop" with a flush draw, assuming I will have the best hand if I make it. If the flush card comes on the turn and/or river, and one of my opponents is still going wild, THEN I'll worry about him having a bigger one.
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Old 01-16-2005, 09:59 PM
hate hate is offline
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Default Re: Flush draws and pot equity

I've talked about this specific issue when it comes to flush draws in a thread dealing with playing late position with, say 53[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or some such. From what I've been told, it's really just not that important that another person may have a higher flush. In most every case, that would become immediately apparent (except in paired up boards), and you simply deal with the issue then.

You've got a 23% chance of having suited hole cards.
If you've got suited hole cards, the odds of having another player in a 10-handed game also having the same-suited hole cards are about 44% (I think that's right, about 4.9% for a single other player to hit the same flush hole cards). This is regardless of you having hit your flush. If you're assuming you've hit your flush and you've got your flush cards, the percentages of any player out of the 9 getting those same hole cards are now 8/47 * 7/46, about 2.5% for any one opponent, and 23% of the time for the entire field.

If my math is wrong, PLEASE somebody correct me.
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