Play this JJJ flop with PartyGirl

partygirluk · #1 12-31-2004, 12:35 AM

Don't have the hand history, but PS $5.5 + rebuys. Just after rebuy period. Blinds are 100/200, you have 6.7K. UTG limp, you limp from EMP with 99, and 6 people see the flop.

Flop (1300 pot) JJJ.

BB and UTG check to me. Three people are still to act.

What is my plan?

adanthar · #2 12-31-2004, 12:37 AM

*6* in? I treat this flop like AAA and get the hell out.

partygirluk · #3 12-31-2004, 12:44 AM

Out of 47 unseen cards, your opponents hold 10 of them. If those cards were random, it would be against the odds for one of them to hold a Jack non? And if no one has a Jack, then we have the best hand a high % of the time, c'est ne pas. But out hand is very vulnerable, is it not so? All this adds up to betting, oui?

fnord_too · #4 12-31-2004, 01:03 AM

I'd make a standard post flop bet. Odds are your hand is good right now but will not be against 5 opponents by the river. How you respond to not taking the pot on the flop, either due to a call or a raise, is entirely situationally dependant.

adanthar · #5 12-31-2004, 01:29 AM

The problem is that jacks are too high a card and the distribution is definitely not random. A flop of 222 looks a hell of a lot better.

Lone aces and sometimes kings with no kicker will call a medium bet at low buyins for sure, as will hands like KQ and most pairs. I think the number of overcards that permanently kill your hand is at least 8, probably 12, and the odds of you being called in at least one spot are close to 100%. Then, of course, there's the odds of you being bluffed out (and I call a big bet on any street 0% of the time.)

It's tricky, and I've bet here before, but it is a very, very marginal situation to be in and it is one of the few where I cannot distinguish between a bluff and a made hand. So I take the easy way out, check and maybe let somebody else bet it for me/see what develops. I don't really feel all that horrible about losing the pot.

Edit: A rebuy makes this even worse because now you're guaranteed to be called in 3 spots, whether they have a J or not. You could go all in and pray but I do think you should *probably* pass. If I had another 2-3 years' worth of experience this would change.

partygirluk · #6 01-03-2005, 06:22 AM

I bet out 350. My reasons for doing so were thus

i) There is a good chance I am ahead, and check folding seems way too weak tight.

ii) My hand is vulnerable, there are lots of turn cards I do not want to see, thus I need to bet to protect.

iii) Any draw against me is unlikely to be strong. Many hands with two overcards would have raised PF. Furthermore, hands like KT, and even AK are unlikely to take much chasing away on this flop.

iv) Betting small loses least when I am behind.

v) The small bet is quite suspicious. It might convince people I have JJ. In any case, I hope it meant that people would be less likely to make a move on me.

Thoughts?

zaxx19 · #7 01-03-2005, 06:31 AM

Doesnt that give 2 overs odds to catch??
The only reason they fold is if you convince them that yu have a J here...Which brings me to this ? , How do you treat a flat call here?? Would a check on the turn also be too weak tight for you if another rag hits....

With 6 callers It just is very probable you will get 1 or 2 callers here IMHO.

And like others said here JJ is hardly a random card would KJ QJ 10J AJ J9s necessarily have raised preflop ?? I dont think so IMHO.

partygirluk · #8 01-03-2005, 06:36 AM

Zaxx, technically it does give two overs the odds to call, but

i) They don't know they have the odds. Indeed they (as I) could be drawing deader than Yasser Arafat.

ii) They could be splitting even if they do hit.

iii) They won't know if they are closing the action when they call.

If you had ATs on this flop, would you feel comfortable chucking in some of your hard earnt chips?

zaxx19 · #9 01-03-2005, 06:45 AM

Im not saying I would ....but odds are you are gonna get some caller/s correct??

How will you proceed?? Gonna put more chips in??

If you wont how is this different that a straight bluff here??

If you would make the bet here with just the folding equity than you having 99 is pretty irrelevant. Correct??

I like your bet actually just trying to see the implications if how to play if you get callers...I think they are serious.

partygirluk · #10 01-03-2005, 06:51 AM

If I get callers I will have to judge the situation as it comes. More than two callers and I am check folding. Two callers I am treading very carefully, and possibly checkfolding. 1 caller, I will have to see. If I have position, then I might put some more chips in. Out of position, and we could be back in check folding territory. Certainly I want to get down to a showdown pretty carn cheap.