2001 WPO-Juanda makes a mistake?

[Daliman]

Never thought i'd see the day, but near as I can tell, John Juanda made a fairly large error in the 2001 World poker open shown recently on ESPN Classic. Best as I can tell from Hellmuth's commentary and looking at the chips, JJ has ~100K in chips, amateur in BB who recently took a huge hit to his stack has ~30k left. blinds are 2 and 4k, plus 800 ante, (i think), so about 10k in initially. JJ pushes from the small after 3 others fold, (Toto Leonidas FOLDED! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] ) for BB's last 26k or so. As i'm writing this and going through the #'s, tho, I'm finding BB still has a foldable stack, and was not nearly as pot commited as I thought,(thought he was in for 10K in BB at first...) so he was getting about 40k for 26k, not an autocall by any means, though he did with A8, and was far ahead of JJ's T5o..until a Txx rainbow flop... JJ takes it down, like he needs the luck..

Seemed to me at first he was raising 1/3 of his stack into a guy who had 1/3 in in the BB, therefore giving him 2.5-1 odds to call. Shoulda known better.

Anyways, carry on with your business. I got halfway through this post before realizing JJ is still god. Figured I may as well follow through on the bluff...

[GFunk911]

I made the following assumptions.

Villian will call with the following hands

AA-77, AKs-A4s, KQs-K7s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J9s, AKo-A4o, KQo-K7o, QJo-Q9o, JTo

You can argue that he'd call with a broader range, I dunno. I think this is a good place to start. He will get one of those hands 27.3% of the time.

When he does get one of those hands and he calls, T5o will have 30.5% pot equity against him. Villian has 26 after the blind, and blinds and antes are 10k. If Villian calls, pot will be 64k.

For the calculation I will rule out the possibility of Juanda calling. This is certainly an option, but a) you can't work it out with math and b)calling against a short stack out of position with a trash hand doesn't sound appetizing.

When Villian calls, Juanda will win 64k 30.5% of the time, for an avg of 19.52k. Compared to folding, this has an EV of -8.48k (28-19.52)

When Villian folds, Juanda picks up 10 in blinds and antes. Compared to folding, this play has an EV of 10k.

The play overall: (-8.5 * 27.3% + 10 * 72.7%) = +4.95k. Seems positive EV to me.

Note: If the BB calls everything, JJ is 44.2%. 44.2% * 64 = 28.288, for an EV of .288 over folding.

I very well could have made any number of math errors, I did this at work (and downloaded PokerStove onto my work computer, probably not good), let me know if anyone finds anything

Note: I believe the play is +EV even if the BB can see JJ's cards, and calls only when he has favorable pot odds, folding otherwise. Selecting the most favorable set of hands I could, comprising 62% of hands, JJ has 34.1% equity and +0.48k equity over folding (roughly)

[drewjustdrew]

[ QUOTE ]
I made the following assumptions.

Villian will call with the following hands

AA-77, AKs-A4s, KQs-K7s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J9s, AKo-A4o, KQo-K7o, QJo-Q9o, JTo

You can argue that he'd call with a broader range, I dunno. I think this is a good place to start. He will get one of those hands 27.3% of the time.

When he does get one of those hands and he calls, T5o will have 30.5% pot equity against him. Villian has 26 after the blind, and blinds and antes are 10k. If Villian calls, pot will be 64k.

For the calculation I will rule out the possibility of Juanda calling. This is certainly an option, but a) you can't work it out with math and b)calling against a short stack out of position with a trash hand doesn't sound appetizing.

When Villian calls, Juanda will win 64k 30.5% of the time, for an avg of 19.52k. Compared to folding, this has an EV of -8.48k (28-19.52)

When Villian folds, Juanda picks up 10 in blinds and antes. Compared to folding, this play has an EV of 10k.

The play overall: (-8.5 * 27.3% + 10 * 72.7%) = +4.95k. Seems positive EV to me.

Note: If the BB calls everything, JJ is 44.2%. 44.2% * 64 = 28.288, for an EV of .288 over folding.

I very well could have made any number of math errors, I did this at work (and downloaded PokerStove onto my work computer, probably not good), let me know if anyone finds anything

Note: I believe the play is +EV even if the BB can see JJ's cards, and calls only when he has favorable pot odds, folding otherwise. Selecting the most favorable set of hands I could, comprising 62% of hands, JJ has 34.1% equity and +0.48k equity over folding (roughly)

[/ QUOTE ]

You are not the only one here that does this (which is the only reason I bring this up), but it's spelled "villain".

[AJo Go All In]

stop posting please

[GFunk911]

[ QUOTE ]
You are not the only one here that does this (which is the only reason I bring this up), but it's spelled "villain".

[/ QUOTE ]

I spel gad. Y u hve 2b a j3rk!?!?! Math N3rd!!!

[drewjustdrew]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You are not the only one here that does this (which is the only reason I bring this up), but it's spelled "villain".

[/ QUOTE ]

I spel gad. Y u hve 2b a j3rk!?!?! Math N3rd!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

It's spelled "bad", not "gad". I'm sure that was a typo though. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[partygirluk]

Hi. Daliman is a very good player with some great posts.

Perhaps this was not his greatest moment, but I hope you were being sarcastic as he is good for these boards.