UB $10+1 $5k Guaranteed Hand from last night

[ericlambi]

Hello 2+2ers:

I played the UB $5k guaranteed $10+1 last night that started at 10PM EST. We started with ~750 players and were down to 18 when the following hand came up:

I'm sitting 9th place with 45k. Player to my right is the chip leader at the table (3rd overall) with 75k. Blinds are 2k-1k. Ante is 400 (I think). I am dealt 99 from MP1. Two players fold to the table chip leader who leads out for 10k. What do you do here?

If it helps, I think we can rule out AA, KK and a complete steal -- I think he would want action with the big PP, which he isn't likely to get with that bet. I think he could have 77-QQ, AQ, AK, maybe KQ, or even a slightly smaller PP.

I haven't seen this guy get out of line yet. The table in general has been pretty aggressive with trying to make steals. The size of the bet says to me that he has a good hand, but would prefer just to take the blinds and antes rather than see a flop out of position. That's just my guess though.

Let me know what to do here.

Thanks,

Eric

BTW . . . 18th place pays $32 and 1st place is north of $1k, if that matters.

[sfwusc]

I am far from an expert. My best finish was 2nd out of 2K in a tourny with more than 30 people.


I think I muck this. You could be ahead, but playing 99 post flop would be hard if overcard were out there.

You would be better off to wait it out. You are in 9th place.

SWUSC

[ericlambi]

I think you are right, given what hands he would do this with, it is almost guaranteed to be a coinflip, with some small chance I'm dominated and some small chance I've got him in trouble with a smaller PP.

I had hoped to get a few more responses, but I guess this hand isn't interesting enough. The way the board came off is at least slightly interesting, so here it goes (results in white - highlight to read):

<font color="white">
Hero: Pushes all-in.

I thought that I had a lot of fold equity here, and barring that I felt strongly that I was in a coinflip situation if he called. If I win this hand, I am the chip leader and have a good shot at an excellent pay day.

Villain: Calls.

F*&amp;k!

Cards are shown: Hero has 99. Villain has AKo.

Flop: 9 7 K

Yes! It's mine, the chip lead is all mine!

Turn: 7

Full House Baby! His backdoor flush is a goner. Slide those chips over to me!

River: K

Result: Villain wins ~90k with Full House. Kings full of Sevens. Hero loses ~45k with Full house - Nines full of Kinds.

WTF? God D*mn M-ther F^ck$% @#$* !%#@ $#@! &amp;%$^ @#$* !%#@ $#@! &amp;%$^ @#$* !%#@ $#@! &amp;%$^ @#$* !%#@ $#@! &amp;%$^ @#$* !%#@ $#@! &amp;%$^ @#$* !%#@ $#@! &amp;%$^ @#$* !%#@ $#@! &amp;%$^ @#$* !%#@ $#@! &amp;%$^

After crying to myself about my bad luck for a half hour or so, I decided that maybe I shouldn't have even played this hand in the first place. I think the critical error was overestimating my fold equity -- with such a strong raise from EP, I don't think this guy was going to let a hand that he would put 10k of chips into go when he could lose and still not be out of the tourney. I also underestimated how crappy going out in 18th place would feel here. 99 is a pretty good hand, but it shrinks up quite a bit when an EP player puts in a 5BB raise, and that is the lesson I've learned here for the future.

I did wonder if anyone thought calling would be correct? I have position on this guy, so even if I miss my set, I have a pretty good chance at taking the pot down if he misses too. In this particular situation, the end result of course would have been no different though.
</font>

[burningyen]

I was waiting for someone more expert than me to reply to your post, but I agree that you have to fold pre-flop. In addition to the reasons already mentioned, you have enough chips to wait for better opportunities and the chip leader is the player you least want to confront.

[dtbog]

I muck preflop. Here's why:

- If you call and take a flop, you have to imagine that being first to act and the chip leader, he's going to fire on the flop. You can't really call without a set or all-undercard flop -- you can push to his lead-out, but that's gamble-y IMO unless you can put him on a hand.

-- If you push all-in before the flop, he's a coin flip with any two broadway cards. Especially after putting in a big raise, many players will make an incorrect call here with a hand like KJ/KQ, but it won't matter that it's "incorrect" because you'll still be a coin flip. Obviously any higher PP is calling, and you're ahead of 77/88. Seems like all but two of the hands that he's making this raise with have you screwed.

I think it's important to remember here that though 99 is a good hand, a lot of its +cashEV in this situation is lost because you're up against the chip leader and don't want a coin flip. Lay this down and wait for a better spot.

-DB

PS - It's also good that you're behind the chip leader, and can choose whether or not to play pots with him. Use this to your advantage, and wait to come over the top of him with premium hands (AA-QQ, maybe JJ) or make your own steals when he's not in the pot.

[schwza]

i think this depends almost entirely on how much the big stack has been stealing, especially from EP. if he has been a lot (like he should), it's a push. if he's been playing pretty tight, it's a fold. if you were in the BB and he were the button, i think this would be an easy push against anyone.

[Potowame]

this is a tough position I think I would Fold here pretty quickly though.

1. You may be ahead here but If he is some what tight you cant have much of a edge to push.

2. You still have 4-5 players to act after you ( you didn't say if you where full or not) , 99 is not a hand you want multi-action with unless its AK vs AK vs 99. And if You are called From another Player You are more than likley dead meat.

If you where finishing the action, it becomes a little tougher. If I had seen him fold to similar situations I would push but if he called eveytime I would fold.