Bubble Hand. Please help me stop crying

[partygirluk]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t12000 (6 handed) converter

MP (t209831)
CO (t216612)
Button (t143760)
Hero (t73478)
BB (t99527)
UTG (t92052)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Two cards.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to t24000</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero?</font>

Mp has been raising 80% of the time it has been folded to him preflop. Basically, he has has been bullying. No one has yet played back at him preflop. When he has been played back at postflop he has shown an ability to fold (though small sample size). BB has been playing really tight.

There are 11 left in the tourney.

Top 9th get $530 tourney
10 gets $280

You are 11th/11, about 8K behind 10th place.

What do I need to push with here?

[krazyace5]

You are not playing for first place here, why worry about playing unless you have a big hand. Let him have it.

[partygirluk]

Sure, but everyone is going to wait for me to blind out, and if I can get him to fold preflop here, or win the hand, then I am in clover.

[tiger7210]

Not a chance in a sattelite. You don't need to win just qualify. You are already in last and still have enough chips to wait for a good hand which could lead to some of the bigger stacks possibly taking each other out. In a qualifier you don't have to get desparate yet. You still have enough folding equity left to steal blinds when 1st into the pot.

[partygirluk]

SAy he will fold 75% of his hands, and I will win 40% of the times he calls.

Then this gives me an 85% chance to gain at minimum a &gt; 40K pot. Which would be enough to allow me to cruise into the money. Will I have a &gt; 85% chance of scoring if I fold?

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
SAy he will fold 75% of his hands

[/ QUOTE ]

He won't. He has 200K and will call pretty much 90% of them in a $5.

This is a classic satellite situation. I would rather fold 99/AJ here and push two cards into two people who won't call you next hand rather than play back at a loose raiser on a sat bubble.

edit: Damn, just saw your post in the other thread. Tough break.

[dr_zorba]

AQo(+) or QQ+.

[zaxx19]

AQ AK AA KK QQ JJ(50-50%)&amp; maybe 10-10(probably not)

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]


Top 9th get $530 tourney
10 gets $280

You are 11th/11, about 8K behind 10th place.

What do I need to push with here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on the how things are going at your table and the other table. If you think it is likely that two people will bust out because of the pressure, then I would not push without ATs/AJo and up or TT and up. If you think you need to win a hand to make it to the top 9, push with KT and up and 77 and up.

Once you win a hand, I would not be very inclined to play unless my chip position deteriorated considerably. The 80% raiser is your friend in any case, because he is increasing the volatility at the table, which of course increases the chance someone will get busted.

Another thing you can do here is push any two on the button or in the sb when it is folded to you. The only stacks left to act will be crippled if they lose to your all in, so will get out of the way almost always (unless they see you do this a couple of times [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

Definitely be patient here, but unless it looks like you can fold your way to the entry, make a move with any decent holding.

[patrick dicaprio]

from your perspective he essentially has a random hand. so your play back hands have to be more than AA-QQ, AK and AQ. I probably play back with 66 or better and AJ or better by pushing all in. hell i might even make a play with KQo or JTs or better. all you have to do is be right once and you will be in good shape. but you are not in a position to just fold your way in.

Pat