A blind stealing hand

[TripleQ]

Background:

PS 30+3 tourney. About 80 people left out of 300ish?, top 50 or so get paid. Table was very tight, I had been stealing about 30% of the time from all positions and constantly won the blinds. Except once, I raised from mid/late position, SB reraised me (not all-in) and I had to fold.

The hand:

Folded to me on the button with 99. I have about 11,000 avg stack 7000, BB has just under 11,000. Blinds 300/600. I raise to 1800. BB (same person who re-raised me before) thinks for about 2 seconds, then re-raises all-in. He had been TAG, raising preflop occassionally, and if called, pretty much betting out on any flop and not showing down.

What do you do?

Results later...

[zaxx19]

UHH...WTF can you do with 99 man?? You wanna call an all in with 99 with a cumfy stack and a table that is letting you steal 1000 every 3rd hand?? \

Sometimes when I play really fast and get away with it I begin to call on hands I shouldnt even think about calling with...seems like you have the exact same problem..I mean k10 IS ALMOST A COIN FLIP VERSUS YOU CMON LAY IT DOWN. You might wanna show here also.

[Cleveland Guy]

Fold this - and think about stealing the blinds less.

Too good of a chance it's a coin flip or your behind. Unless he is raising with complete crap or a lower PP your not way ahead.

Also- I would slow down my stealing. This guy has figured something out, so he will be trying to pick off your steals here.

[zaxx19]

A better question is would you lay JJ here...I posted a hand like this (I WASNT STEALING 1/3RD THE HANDS..I DOUBT YOU WERE THAT BAD..) a few days back...Ive thought about and think if you have JJ its a call. You definitely need to slow down from stealing 30% of the hands..I mean thats insane people are gonna start playing back at you with absolutely nada or worse yet wake up with KK when you get 10-10 or something.

[Cleveland Guy]

Zaxx,

Please don't hijack this thread with your JJ hand. You posted a thread about it and got feedback, if you want more then bump your own thread.

FYI - I thought I gave you solid advice about your JJ hands.

[zaxx19]

Nowones hijacking anything....its the same concept a reraised pp below QQ and above baby.....If ytou cant see how discussing one hand naturally leads into dicussing the other well Im just gonna disagree with yu. Plus this hand is a PRETTY STRONG MUCK; which leads to natural follow up of how low do you call with.

[Cleveland Guy]

As often as he has been stealing, and since chips are about equal I am probably only calling with:

AA and KK, maybe QQ and AKs

[Sam T.]

I have a tendency to fall in love with my pocket pairs, so if you called, I'm not in any position to criticize. (But it's a fold here.)

I agree with Cleveland Guy, that you gotta slow down your steals, especially if anyone to your left has a brain. A smart player will bide his time and then clean your clock. Stealing at this rate would be one thing if you have an absolutely monstrous stack, but I don't have the sense that that is the case here.

[SossMan]

Let's think about this for a second before we make any rash judgments about what he should do:

- He has an aggressive image

- He open raised from the button

- He has a much better hand for his position than would be expected

- His opponent has shown TAG tendencies (therefore is probably a thinking player)

- Pot odds = 1.5:1 (assuming there were antes, a little less if there were no antes)

- Folding would encourage others to play back at us and curb out stealing abilities

All these factors make us lean towards calling.

However,

- We are getting near the bubble. This has two considerations, both negative. Firstly, we have to be aware of us making the money. Second, we know that many players are less willing to risk their stacks on marginal hands.

- We are running over the table and are able to often take the blinds. Even better oppurtunities will arise soon as the real bubble approaches.

- We can fold and still have a decent stack to work with of over 10xBB.


So, given this info, what is the range of hands that you put the thinking BB on to make this move? Let's figure out the chipEV first, then we can move onto the other "tournament life" considerations.

Remember that we can be as little as a 60-40 dog to make the call chipEV nuetral.

I think it's important to not fall into the trap of "I'm a big dog or a small favorite" with something like 99. You have to take all the factors into consideration when determining the range of hands that your opponent could have.

-SossMan

[SossMan]

bump