Broadway--a river decision

BottlesOf · #1 12-31-2004, 07:13 PM

Villain here is a 53/11 with an AF of 1.0.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, BB folds, Hero 3-bets, SB calls.

River: (10.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero...

SCfuji · #2 12-31-2004, 07:19 PM

all i hear about 15/30 players is that they go crazy with one pair. but, the AF of 1.0 makes me wonder why the villain went crazy on the turn. i would prefer calling. did villain showdown T2 or 22?

private joker · #3 12-31-2004, 07:19 PM

Raise and call a 3-bet? I don't see him playing AJ or JT on the flop that way. Even with the planned turn c/r. If he flopped 2 pair he should bet into you, let you raise, then c/r the turn.

IndieMatty · #4 12-31-2004, 07:21 PM

Had the exact same hand today, and my villian had AJ.

I still raise though.

BWebb · #5 12-31-2004, 07:23 PM

Raise and I can't believe this is even close.

BottlesOf · #6 12-31-2004, 07:25 PM

Really? I think it's knida close...I might suck though.

What percentage of the time that he calls the river raise do I have the best hand? What percentage of the time will he 3-bet and I'll call with a loser?

BWebb · #7 12-31-2004, 07:29 PM

It probably is close, and I probably suck. If your read on him is good, then maybe a call is in order. How many hands do you have on him?

BottlesOf · #8 12-31-2004, 07:31 PM

I've already closed the program and forgotten him. Based on the size of my db and my criteria for pv exports, it's safe to assume hundreds. Let's say 500.

BWebb · #9 12-31-2004, 07:33 PM

Then call I guess. For some reason, it's hard to make too many player specific plays like this against cyber-people. If I know the guy from the card barn, sure. But wouldn't he checkraise a full-house in this situation, even if he isn't that aggressive?

DemonDeac Holding Rockets · #10 12-31-2004, 07:37 PM

Raise and call a 3-bet seems best here

As others have said, it's hard to put him on a rivered boat since he would've played his two pair differently, IMO.