Hand Of the Weak

private joker · #1 12-15-2004, 09:35 PM

Was this ultra-weak? I've been trying to tighten up lately after a series of chip spews on hands like this. I don't think the pot was big enough to justify me tossing in another 2 BB.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, Hero raises, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB calls, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: (6 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9 BB

wabe · #2 12-16-2004, 03:00 PM

If you put him on a flush draw, then you have one out. If you put him on an A, you have two outs. Two outs is 22:1.

Credible fold, I think.

droolie · #3 12-16-2004, 03:05 PM

I don't like this fold. You're getting 4:1 to call this down. You only have to win this a little over 25% to profit.

davelin · #4 12-16-2004, 03:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like this fold. You're getting 4:1 to call this down. You only have to win this a little over 25% to profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that's the case.

droolie · #5 12-16-2004, 03:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like this fold. You're getting 4:1 to call this down. You only have to win this a little over 25% to profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that's the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right it's the odds are actually better than I stated. It will cost him 2BB to call down a 12BB pot. On the turn his odds are 9:1. Assuming villian bets the river it'll be 11:1. Knowing this on the urn means your calldown odds for trun and river will be 2:11. You can therefor win this %20 of the time and still profit.

Either way I like your chances enough to not fold.

davelin · #6 12-16-2004, 03:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like this fold. You're getting 4:1 to call this down. You only have to win this a little over 25% to profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that's the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right it's the odds are actually better than I stated. It will cost him 2BB to call down a 12BB pot. On the turn his odds are 9:1. Assuming villian bets the river it'll be 11:1. Knowing this on the urn means your calldown odds for trun and river will be 2:11. You can therefor win this %20 of the time and still profit.

Either way I like your chances enough to not fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's 2:10. But honestly I don't see Hero winning this 20% of the time.

meep_42 · #7 12-16-2004, 03:26 PM

What does Button bluff-raise here with? 99? TT?

-d

private joker · #8 12-16-2004, 03:32 PM

Remember, button cold-called Preflop, smooth-called the flop bet on a semi-coordinated board, and then popped me on the turn. I don't see a pair of kings holding up here more often than 10% of the time, if that. He has an ace at worst, and a made flush has me drawing dead.

droolie · #9 12-16-2004, 03:47 PM

You're probably right that calldown is -EV on this one.

However in general...
I'm not a big believer in folding when an obvious scare card hits. By calling you're trying to catch a bluffer who thinks that flush card is a scare card for you. Folding too much when this happens encourages others to mess with you. If I'm at the table with you and I see you fold to one raise like this enough times I'm taking shots at you before long. By calling down you get a chance to draw to that 2-outer (4.34%), discourage bluffs and possibly profit if the button is bluffing 15% of the time.