flop a set on draw heavy board

[anduril]

5-10 stars, villain has just over $1200, I'm at $1120.

my first hand at the table and I post in the CO with JJ. Folded to me and I make it $30, button calls, BB calls.

flop is Q J 9 two hearts (Jh on the board)

BB bets $50, I raise to $220, button makes it $525 to go, BB folds. Ideas?

[GimmeDaWatch]

Its move-in or fold time, and I dont think you'll find too many posters who recommend that you fold.

[anduril]

I suppose the results made me question my play as he took it down with QQ. Maybe he played horribly?

yes I pushed and he obviously called.

[BK_]

i would be alot happier about getting all in if he had pushed. on one hand, you love that the board is so drawy because it decreases the chances he has a higher set when he gives you action, but you hate the fact that a huge draw would very rarely choose the 560 raise size. i dont think this is too straight forward at all.

[anduril]

i dont think this is too straight forward at all.

I didn't think so either, but when I put my hand up against these possibilities in pokerstove(AA-QQ, TT-99, AKs-ATs, KQs-K9s, QJs-Q9s), my hand has 73% equity. The only hand I left out was JJ since he couldn't have it. Since I'm ahead 3 out of 4 times and he would theoretically call with most of those, I wanted to get my money in with the best of it. The only other thing I thought of doing was calling (if anything to confuse him) and seeing what the turn brought, pushing on any non-heart, non K,10,8 but if one of those fell and I checked and he pushed could I really fold a set of jacks getting over 3-1 when even if I'm behind I have 10 redraw outs?

[Louie Landale]

You are pot committed if you call; so basically it costs $800 to call and you can win his $800 plus the $600 in the pot (before his raise).

If he has a straight you are a 2:1 dog. Will he call with KT or T8? That's important. You are a huge dog if he has QQ. You are a huge favorite if he has a set of 9s or the unlikely QJ. You are a 7:3 favorite if he has a normal draw, and a comfortable 3:2 favorite if he has a big draw (ATh).

So. Will he play KT? Will he gamble with a big draw? The key here is answers to those questions.

- Louie

[BK_]

[ QUOTE ]


Will he gamble with a big draw? - Louie

[/ QUOTE ]

i submit that it is just as important to figure out if he is capable of choosing such a bad raise amount when he chooses to gamble with a draw.

[BK_]

[ QUOTE ]

I didn't think so either, but when I put my hand up against these possibilities in pokerstove(AA-QQ, TT-99, AKs-ATs, KQs-K9s, QJs-Q9s), my hand has 73% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

i tend to discount alot of those suited heart hands because of his decision to raise and not push. when you do so, i think it becomes alot closer to 50/50.

[anduril]

i tend to discount alot of those suited heart hands because of his decision to raise and not push. when you do so, i think it becomes alot closer to 50/50.

thus the problem of this being my first hand at the table with him. How do I know he won't make this raise with a A10h or A9h/K9h (OESD and FD/pair+flush draw)? His call pf means nothing to me because he could easily be disguising a big pair if he thinks I'm trying to steal after posting. He could also be making a loose call with just about any of those suited connector/gappers too. In any case, I still think I'm ahead here a good amount of the time with a vulnerable hand and I'd much rather make him commit when he's losing. Just happened to be he had one of the few hands I was way behind in.

[GimmeDaWatch]

I dont think there's any way you can fold for the following
reasons. Assuming he's solid, his range of hands is pretty limited. QQ and 99 are about equally likely, with a slight edge toward 99 since many players will re-raise with QQ. So, these cancel each other out roughly. QJs seems like a more likely hand to coldcall a raise with than KT: against the former he is drawing nearly dead and against the latter you've got a decent chance to fill up, another argument for moving in. Finally, against any big draw (of which there are many) you are a 2:1 favorite. This is not taking into account the fact that he may have slowplayed a bigger pair or be overplaying any lesser hand. It sucks that he happened to set over set you, but there is no way on earth you're behind enough here to fold. Even if what others are saying about this not looking like a draw were 100% true and you could somehow narrow his hand range down to QQ and 99 (which is of course absurd) you would still have to move in here.