what do you think?

schwza · #1 12-14-2004, 04:37 PM

from sunday's stars $215 tourney. we're fairly close to the bubble - 180 pay and i think there are about 240 left.

the tourney started with just under 2000, which is the cutoff for paying out more spots, which means that the prize for finishing just barely in the money is meatier than usual.

i don't have access to my stars player notes, so assume no reads.

i thought this was an obvious play at the time, but now i'm not so sure...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1200 (9 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

MP3 (t59961)
CO (t32487)
Button (t26805)
SB (t19006)
Hero (t12087)
UTG (t34143)
UTG+1 (t16512)
MP1 (t13557)
MP2 (t11938)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
7 folds, SB raises to t3600, Hero raises to t12012, SB calls t8412.

Flop: (t24549) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Turn: (t24549) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t24549) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t24549
Main Pot: t24549 (t24549), between SB and Hero.

sdplayerb · #2 12-14-2004, 04:59 PM

i think it is fine, especially if he is at all aggressive.
he can only call with a decent A or any pocket pair.
You are getting some folding equity against bad A.
most of the hands that call you will only be up a little..ie AJ, AT.

I might fold it if I felt like I could steal a lot preflop. I do pushin, but do think it is a little close, but a pushin.

why do you think otherwise?

SD

zaxx19 · #3 12-14-2004, 05:03 PM

Its a good spot too punish a steal.. Id prefer to have an AQ or AJ here but hey.. that being said I hope the read was at least strong. With the folding equity its 50-50 probably since every ace has a small lead...

Chaostracize · #4 12-14-2004, 05:07 PM

You'll be getting a lot of hands to fold here. This push seems fine to me. You got unlucky against an A-overvaluer, I assume. But the times that you make a weak A or small PP and outright steals fold makes this play well worth it, especially since there are relatively (to his position) few hands that dominate you.

sdplayerb · #5 12-14-2004, 05:08 PM

i think the SB made a mistake. He should have just pushed in in the first place since the BB was at 10x. There are very few hands that he isn't getting odds to then call the pushin with, thus should just pushin and put him at a decision to call allin in the first place, getting rid of his folding equity.

to argue the otherside, could say he will call anything, and if the bb calls, push on anything.
but i prefer a push by the sb, or a bigger raise to commit himself.

theantelope · #6 12-14-2004, 05:32 PM

I think you have to expect him to call with any ace, and any pair. People are really loathe to fold in this spot. I lay it down, but I do think it's very close, and it becomes a better fold as your chances of stealing sucessfully increase.

Edit: Anyway, after reading the other responses, I think it's clear that many "good" players are guilty of assuming other players play like they do. I totally disagree with the statements about folding equity against a weak-ish ace.

PuckNPoker · #7 12-14-2004, 05:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i think the SB made a mistake. He should have just pushed in in the first place since the BB was at 10x. There are very few hands that he isn't getting odds to then call the pushin with, thus should just pushin and put him at a decision to call allin in the first place, getting rid of his folding equity.

to argue the otherside, could say he will call anything, and if the bb calls, push on anything.
but i prefer a push by the sb, or a bigger raise to commit himself.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. About the SB mistake if he was going to raise he was pretty much committed anyways, might as well go the whole way.

As for the push itself, The SB is gettig 2-1 on his call so he would call with any reasonable two. He would only worry about having 2 live cards. Yes?

erfinator · #8 12-14-2004, 06:30 PM

I'm not sure I'd make this play, but what about just calling and going from there? Of course, it depends on your read on your opponent and if he will push the flop regardless of what comes.

Pat Southern · #9 12-14-2004, 06:38 PM

I agree that in a $5-$50 tournament that your folding equity is probably very low, but considering the play in a larger buyin tournament will be a little better (although there are still bad players in these tournaments), without any reads, I assume he still can get his opponents to lay down a decent range of hands.