Blind vs. Bluff

[dtbog]

Situation: NLHE home cash game, where most of the players know each other's play pretty well. The game has been going on for a few hours, and we're five handed when this hand arises.

(Stakes aren't necessarily mid-high, but I think it's an interesting hand. Cross-posting in SSNL.)

Blinds are 0.5/1, average buy-in is around $100. At the time of this hand, I have about $150, and villain has me more than covered (probably ~$300?).

I raise it to $2.50 preflop UTG, with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. (remember, we're five-handed). Villain makes it $10 to go from the small blind, which he's been doing with reasonable regularity. I call.

I have position as we go to the flop, heads-up, with $21 in the pot.

K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

He checks, I bet $15, he calls. At this point, I am putting him on any two cards. We've played together on quite a few occasions, and this situation has come up many times before. I often let him get away with a stop-and-go bet of around the size of the pot on the turn, if I do not improve my hand.

$51 to the turn, which is the Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. This puts a few draws on the board, but all I'm thinking about when he bets out for $35 is my read -- I still think this guy has nothing. He's making a standard play that usually works. I'm basically putting him on no hand, no draw at this point. (Please don't analyze this hand based on the preflop reraise -- I am confident that this player will do this with any two cards, if he feels the situation is right.)

I push all-in over the top, for another $75. At this point, the villain confirms my read - he hasn't looked at his cards yet! The pot contains $121, and the call is $75. He stacks up his chips for the call, and then looks down at his hole cards...

...and, unfortunately, his hand contains a king and a three. After a few minutes of thought, he determines correctly that I don't make this push with a stronger king or better-than-one-pair hand, and calls. Ace or ten don't come.

This hand raised a few interesting questions, all of which I feel should be answered without considering the possibility that my read was totally wrong and he had a strong hand. (Obviously, if I push and he flips KQ, that's just a mis-read. No analysis needed there.):

- Assuming the possibility that my read is MOSTLY right - say he has 76s and picked up a heart draw to go along with it on the turn.. is there enough folding equity with this push?

- Assuming that I know he hasn't looked at his cards -- I can only imagine him calling here with AQ, a king, or two pair/set. This is definitely a +EV push for folding equity, then -- right?

- Against an unknown player, does the opponent make a good call? I have no problem with my opponent's call here -- aside from any physical reaction that he could have gotten from me when he looked at his cards, he knows that I probably don't make this push with a strong hand. Assuming this hand happened in a casino, say -- would you say the average player pushes here with a strong hand? Do you call with your K3?

Any comments welcome. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
-DB