fold anywhere?

turnipmonster · #1 12-09-2004, 12:44 PM

anyone get away from this at any point? I pay this off 100% of the time. opponent is loose but sane.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP folds, CO calls, Button calls, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, UTG calls, CO folds, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG folds, Button calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

naphand · #2 12-09-2004, 01:25 PM

Well, the Turn card is such an obvious bluff card I would be tempted to call down but with your 2nd-nut draw you cannot fold the Turn raise. On the River the pot is big enough to justify check-calling here; you are going to see AT or a flush a lot of times you will also see a bunch of other hands like K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J/T, J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T/8/7, 99 and more bizarre stuff.

Jeff W · #3 12-09-2004, 01:27 PM

I believe it is obvious that you can't fold before the river. You have an overpair w/ a heart on the flop and on the turn you have a draw to the second nuts and your queens might be clean.

On the river, it's a judgement call. Are you good 1/13.5 times? If yes, call. If no, fold.

I would almost always call, though he'll usually win. If Pokerstove didn't always hang when I ran simulations, I'd run a simulation with the following hand distribution for my opponent:

Any two pair hands(T8,A7...etc)
Any two hearts
Any straight 69,J9
Any set
Straight draw w/ an ace AJ/A9

Any pair with a flush card or straight card(J or 9)
99, JJ
Kh 9x
Misc weak semi-bluff hands and a small percentage of pure bluffs

My hunch is given this distribution(even appropriately weighted) you win your fair share. Barely.

Benjamin · #4 12-09-2004, 03:44 PM

.

Grisgra · #5 12-09-2004, 04:40 PM

Pretty painful. You can't fold before the river, and the odds you're getting on the river are stupendous. I think you're going to be shown something like K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8x around 3-4% of the time -- but not the 7% of the time you need to make the call profitable.

But hell, I can't lay this down, because if I do and he shows me K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8x I feel reeeealllly reallllly stupid. Even if your gut tells you you don't quite have odds to call, it's so close I probably go ahead and do it anyway. Is that bad play?

turnipmonster · #6 12-09-2004, 04:59 PM

unimportant, but villain had a KhXh flush.

this seems like one of those situations where I call the turn getting "odds" to draw, then I call the river because I don't have to be right very often to win (wait, wasn't I drawing? never mind that, I'm getting 13 to 1 ! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). the combination of these two things to me seems to be not a good way to think about things, as it tends to mirror most of my opponent's thought processes.

anyways, problem is I'm almost always crushed 6 ways to sunday here against a sane player. there's just not many hands I can beat, even though the only place I could fold is the river.

--turnipmonster

Jeff W · #7 12-09-2004, 07:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
unimportant, but villain had a KhXh flush.

this seems like one of those situations where I call the turn getting "odds" to draw, then I call the river because I don't have to be right very often to win (wait, wasn't I drawing? never mind that, I'm getting 13 to 1 ! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). the combination of these two things to me seems to be not a good way to think about things, as it tends to mirror most of my opponent's thought processes.
--turnipmonster

[/ QUOTE ]

My friend calls this "Creating your own pot odds."

I call it misguided thinking. Something I learned from Pot Limit Omaha is that all hands are drawing hands(the immortal nuts is a drawing hand with 100% equity).

1. On the turn your hand is going to win some percentage of the time against your opponent's hand range.

2. Your hand has some "made hand" equity>0 and some "drawing" equity>0 on the turn against your opponent's range of hands. Add the two to get your total equity.

3. If you are not planning to call the river unimproved, then your "made hand" equity=0 and you should only use your "drawing" equity to determine if your odds are sufficient for a call.

4. If your hand has no drawing equity, then you should only use your "made hand" equity vs. effective odds to determine whether you have a call or not.

I put made hand and drawing in quotes, because they're essentially equivalent.

I hope this was helpful.

Michael Davis · #8 12-09-2004, 07:10 PM

I don't think your line of thinking is wrong at all. There are situations where it would be correct to fold on the turn because you have to pay two big bets to see it through to the end and the odds don't justify that. But then there are situations where because of a draw you have to call the turn. Now you've made it to the river, the pot is bigger, and it only costs one bet, so you have to call because you are getting the odds. Just like in the first situation, if you could are forced by gunpoint to call the turn and then you had an option on the river, you would call the river even though if you could you would go back and fold the turn. It is not incorrect thinking, it just sucks because you seem to always lose.

-Michael

jen · #9 12-09-2004, 08:43 PM

I don't like the way that you played this hand; I think calling the river after the turn raise is awful unless you're playing against a total crazy (and I'm assuming 5/10 players are even more passive than the opponents that I typically play against and wouldn't call). On the turn, I prefer to check-call the rest of the way (without improvement). But if I bet the turn and get raised, then I'm folding the river (without improvement).

fsuplayer · #10 12-10-2004, 12:27 AM

flop and turn look perfectly fine.

river: Call. you are getting 13.5/1 on your call. in the 5/10 and even moreso in the 10/20, somebody is bluffing here at least 10% of the time.

you only have to be right 7.5% of the time here to be +EV.

i play it the same.

fsuplayer