Top set - Party 200NL

[Benal]

I'm at work, so I don't have the hand history. Stack and bet sizes might be a little off, but are fairly accurate.

The table was tight.. everyone's VP$IP was under 30.

Party $200NL 6max (6 handed)

Button ($220)
UTG ($190)
Hero ($180)

Everyone limps to me in SB with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I raise to 12, BB folds, UTG calls, MPs fold, Button Calls

Flop comes J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet out $30, UTG calls, Button pushes.. Damn.. I have to call this, or do I?

[Muisyle]

I don't see why you wouldn't. You're a HUGE favorite over a lot of hands and a large favorite over a hand like an OESFD and you still have a chance to boat if he did in fact flop the straight.

[ QUOTE ]

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc 9h 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qh Th 684 69.09 297 30.00 9 0.91 0.695
Js Jd 297 30.00 684 69.09 9 0.91 0.305


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc 9h 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Th 381 38.48 591 59.70 18 1.82 0.394
Js Jd 591 59.70 381 38.48 18 1.82 0.606


[/ QUOTE ]

There are only two hands that beats you (both straights), and the best drawing hand is a 38% dog.

[brighten]

I would call. I guess he may have a favourable draw, like
Qx h.
You have 10 outs to built a full house.
It depends how much the allin is though.
I had a similar situation in a loose 50 NL game.
I had 99, in LP. limp in. Button raised to 2 $, Sb folds,
BB call. flop is 89T, all h. BB bet 1, I called. button raised to 5, I am short stack and went to all in.
I lose to button since he holds JQ off suite, no h.

[gergery]

Easy call.

By my calculation, you must risk $136 to win $288, so you’re getting ~2:1 on your money. You will fill up your boat that often. Even if he flashed you the made straight here you would be roughly EV neutral calling his bet. And since he could easily have just about any two hearts A-J or Tx or a worse set, calling is very EV+.

--Greg

[Benal]

Thanks Greg, just the response I was looking for.

[Pokerho]

odds question based on this hand... am I calculating this right?

He has 7 outs to the full house or quads on the turn, or 7 / 47 = 14.9%

and he has 10 outs to the same on the river, or 10 / 46 = 21.7%

So he has a 36.6% chance to get the boat or quads?

Then: assuming the villain has the straight, he is getting 2:1 on a 1 in 3 shot?

[Snoogins47]

I'm so glad somebody used the term "outs to build a full house."

[schwza]

you're double-counting those times when he hits a full-house card on the turn and river. to do it properly, find:
p(miss turn) * p(miss river) to find odds he misses and then take 1-that. or go to: pokerupdate.com - they have a lot of useful stats.

[amoeba]

you can't just add the two.

to reiterate what others have said, its

1-(1-.149)*(1-.217)=33.3%

[schwah]

dont fold sets in 50 BB games