Commerce 100nl live hand, semi bluff

[DBowling]

This was probably my third or fourth orbit at the table. Id say about 75% of the hands were raised preflop, which really threw my game off. Ive been getting too used to the rock gardens at party. I dont have any reads off of villian; he's too much of a maniac for me. I notice he is playing almost every hand, and is the main aggressor preflop in most hands. He does not appear to be a good player though, and shows down a lot of suspect hands (Q3 for two pair, T3s for flush). Was it a mistake calling preflop? I know the better play would have been to wait until i had a bigger hand or until i was deeper stacked, but im sometimes too damned impatient in live games. But once i call, hows my play?

Blinds 2/3
Main villian ~$300
Hero ~$100

Hero is dealt 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the BB
Villian in mp raises to $10.
MP calls
SB calls
Hero Calls.
Because almost every hand is getting raised, and there is always a lot of post flop action, i figure this is not a bad hand to call with, for only $7 more

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB checks
Hero Checks
Villian bets $25
MP folds
SB Calls
Hero raises all in to about $70 total.
Ive got a double gut shot straight draw on a two tone board 6 clean outs and two other outs that might give someone a flush. I also have a backdoor flush draw.
Im thinking villian could have something like two overcards, or a small/medium pair, or maybe just two random cards. I didnt think he had a big pair, he raised more preflop with them. I thought SB likely had a flush draw or also a small pair. By pushing all in, i hope to fold out a flush draw to give myself 8 good outs, or better yet, fold out both hands and take down a ~$90 pot.

Comments?

[soah]

Don't like the call preflop out of position...

How likely is this guy to fold? That's what it really comes down to...

[DBowling]

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How likely is this guy to fold? That's what it really comes down to...

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Thats exactly what i was thinking. How often does he need to fold to make this play profitable? Im too tired to figure that out myself.

[BobboFitos]

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Don't like the call preflop out of position...

How likely is this guy to fold? That's what it really comes down to...

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I like the call. The blinds are 2/3, and BB closes the action. Would you fold there? That's weak tight.

Yeah, he has been showing down odd hands, hope he doesn't call you with somehting like a bare Ace, but based on your description he seems like a gambler with any piece of the board will call you. Even still I like the semibluff, but then again, I have an attachment to C/R Semibluffs.

[Sponger15SB]

I think its profitable even if he calls. Worst case scenario is that he has AK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], set of 8's, but if he has AA or KK then he is only a 63% favorite, and there is already $40 in the pot.

If you miss, just make sure you show the entire table that you push with draws and you'll get tons of action on future hands against this crowd.

Also with the $2/3 $100max structure you definantly need a bigger stack to start messing around with draws

[BK_]

i think this is a very -EV, extra silly all in semi bluff. Even if the other guy folded, i think the all in is still very possibly -EV vs the villians bet. With that other guy in there, the villian is getting great pot odds, and will call with almost all of his pocket pair hands. If the villian folds, the other guy will call with alot of his pair hands, and alot of his big draw hands. in short, i think your opponents' range is not low enough here for you to push, and i think that they will call with a large % of their range due to great odds you have given them with your short stack.

preflop is borderline given that you only have 100 dollars at the table and are out of position. increase your stack to 200 and i love it.

[okayplayer]

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i think this is a very -EV, extra silly all in semi bluff. Even if the other guy folded, i think the all in is still very possibly -EV vs the villians bet. With that other guy in there, the villian is getting great pot odds, and will call with almost all of his pocket pair hands. If the villian folds, the other guy will call with alot of his pair hands, and alot of his big draw hands. in short, i think your opponents' range is not low enough here for you to push, and i think that they will call with a large % of their range due to great odds you have given them with your short stack.

preflop is borderline given that you only have 100 dollars at the table and are out of position. increase your stack to 200 and i love it.

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I agree, well stated. With deeper stacks you can make this call PF profitable, but with your short stack, it is pretty questionable, especially out of position. Wait til you get a stronger hand to bust the LAG on.

[jtr]

For you guys who believe this move to be -EV, what do you think the chance is that the villain will fold? By my calculations, if we assume that SB folds and there's even something like a 15% chance of villain folding, this move is fine.

OK, I realize this is very rough and ready, but you see what I'm getting at: fold equity really increases the power of this move. I find it hard to accept that this is "silly" or "very -EV". If it is -EV, I don't think it's by much.

Plus, as Sponger points out, there is significant advertising value in showing this down in a live game.

[BobboFitos]

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preflop is borderline given that you only have 100 dollars at the table and are out of position. increase your stack to 200 and i love it

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Bk - is this really an auto muck? Granted, the buy in relegates all play to short stacked poker until people start amassing buy ins, but the action PF went...

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Villian in mp raises to $10.
MP calls
SB calls


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So here is calling 7 for an immediate pot of 33. Still bad? I realize he's much more likely to flop adraw then a made hand, (as is the case) and being OOP it's tough for him to either extract more if he makes his hand or have control over the hand, but I find this an easy call?

[amoeba]

With his stack so short, he is almost forced to play any draw this way with a check raise all or maybe semibluff by leading on the flop.

He also doesn't have that much folding equity with a check raise all in as its not that much more to call it, especially if villain is a lag, your folding equity is almost zero.

For these reasons, I fold preflop. And if the table is as you say, likely to have a preflop raise with any two hands, I don't even limp with this out of position. The value of your drawing hands go down severely. Just wait for a premium hand and try to get it in preflop with a limp reraise.

Now, if you plan to rebuy for a much bigger stack if you lose, then you might get some advertising value out of it but if you are going to buy in for short stack again, then the advertising value isn't really worth it.