Choosing a line?

[thatpfunk]

The game is $2-4 NL at Sycuan casino in San Diego. It is a great game but most of the really bad players are shortstacked w/ around $150

Hero~$800
Villian~$900
Limp-a-long ~$175 (he is very bad and will call with any draw, piece of the board, or overcards)

Villian is one of the few thinking players at the table and attempts to play well. He is relatively inexperienced however and can be very aggro.

Hero is BB with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villian is Utg+1 raises to $14, 2 callers, Hero raises $45. Villian calls, 1 limper calls, other drops.

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero checks, Villian bets $75, limp-a-long calls (he has only about $50 left).

What is the best line from here?

How much better is betting out vs. check-calling vs. check raising?

What changes if the turn is J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], X [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Jo, or complete rag?

Thanks

[sisyphus]

you go all-in without a doubt, or at least a hefty re-raise, then you don't have to second guess yourself on the turn. You are not going to fold trips on the turn, so ..... deep breath and push, jus hope you get caller. u cannot give any free cards with poss. str8's and flush on the board

[PassiveCaller]

If your opponent has a flush draw won't betting out often be the best route against this opponent since he'll probably come over the top of you? Given this spot I like a big re-raise but I seriously think betting out is superior to getting all the chips in in a mannerism in which I'm most likely the ahead and a big check-raise at least ensures you play a big pot way ahead.

[thatpfunk]

Going all-in would be horrible here. I am not worried about him having a straight or flush draws. I don't want a scare card to push him off his hand. I want to get as much money out of my opponent as possible.

[thatpfunk]

I considered betting out, but really wanted him to take a stab at the pot if he thought maybe I had KK, JJ, etc. and was giving up. His bet seemed very confident however and I put him on a very decent hand.

[schwza]

my first inclination was to say push here, but i changed my mind. i like a flat call.

limp-along only have 50 left. it looks like the only way he's folding is if he has a draw that misses and the turn is checked around. but you're not going to be able to move him off a draw, even a gutshot. so you can pretty much treat him as all-in.

primary villain is pretty unlikely to have a flush draw. he'd have to have raised utg+1 with KJs or worse. it's possible because he's described as aggro, but i don't think it's very likely. by the same rationale, he's unlikely to have a gutshot (KT, KJ, JT). similiarly, he should realize that you are unlikely to have a draw, so even if a spade hits, it shouldn't kill your action. his likely hands are AK,AQ,JJ,TT,KK,QQ in something like that order, IMO.

AK: villain might make a good laydown if you c/r the flop here, but since he's aggro he'll likely bet the turn, so you can c/r him all-in and he'll have to call.

AQ/QQ: the money's going in regardless.

JJ/TT/KK: he'll fold to your c/r, but he might bet again on the turn drawing dead.

so check-call to give him another chance to bet AK or a pocket pair.

[BK_]

if you wernt planning to check raise, you never should have checked. in that case, a bet would have been alot better.

i probably would have bet this flop, as alot of times the 2 players behind you will check behind and then you are in a crappy situation. or, sometimes worse, the villian will check and the short stack will bet, forcing you to check raise and give away the strength of your hand, freezing the villian out.

(this is not a flop where an extra card falling on the turn is going to help your ability to get money in, as a favorite. and obviously you lose value from AK/AQ if you miss a street of betting by checking, and you often lose value from those hands if you have to c/r and give them a chance to fold)

[BK_]

[ QUOTE ]
I considered betting out, but really wanted him to take a stab at the pot if he thought maybe I had KK, JJ, etc. and was giving up. His bet seemed very confident however and I put him on a very decent hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

the average extra EV you gain by doing this is small. (the probability he will think this is relatively small, the probability he has a hand that he will bluff here is not 1, and plus the player behind the villian acts as a buffer against any bluffs) And it is definently outweighed by the EV you lose by not betting the turn, for the reasons in my post.