Here's a tough spot..what do you do?

[Lawrence Ng]

3/6 Party game.

I have been playing on this table with a mix of lag's, rocks, and assorted candies.

Villian's stats are the following:

VP$IP: 10.02 %
PF Raise: 2.33 %
Went to SD: 21.00
Avg Aggression (not including pre-flop) 1.1

Villian is first in and limps. I have AQ suited and raise. Blinds fold, villian calls.

Flop comes Q-4-2 rainbow without any of your suit.

Villain bets, I raise, Villain re-raises.

What would you do?

Lawrence

[Alobar]

I call and raise the turn. Its more likely he has AQ KQ than it is he has 44 or 22. Hes also really tight so I doubt he limps 44 or 22 UTG or plays something as stupid as Q4. He also would have raised AA, KK or QQ

[Brunger]

Wow what a tight ass! He just limped in with QQ. Tough not to go to showdown but maybe not against him I am certainly done betting/raising.

[btspider]

how many hands do you have with him?

I think I would just call down (bet if checked to). if you cap, it allows him to check-raise you on the turn.* He could have a set, but he could have AQ/KQs/QJs as well. Does someone with 10 VPIP even limp UTG with a baby pair or QJs?

* should i even be considering this? i didn't at the micros, but I was wondering if passing on a flop SB to save a potential BB on the turn is a bad idea. If he has something like JJ, he may keep betting our hand for us too. nevermind, JJ would probably check-raise (or ck-fold).. not bet-3bet.

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
how many hands do you have with him?

[/ QUOTE ]

At that point I had about 45 hands with the villain.

[ QUOTE ]
Does someone with 10 VPIP even limp UTG with a baby pair or QJs?


[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I found strange. Maybe he just wasn't picking up any hands at all. But 44 was a possibility, although I don't know how a tight rock like that could limp in first with 44.

[Fat Nicky]

Yea, he's pretty passive. After getting 3-bet on the flop, I'm just calling down against this rock.

[BWebb]

I'll get flamed for this, but if those stats are a big enough sample size, I think you could fold the flop. He has a set, so even though you have odds to draw to two pair, I don't think it will be good anyway.

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll get flamed for this, but if those stats are a big enough sample size, I think you could fold the flop. He has a set, so even though you have odds to draw to two pair, I don't think it will be good anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi BWebb, yeah my sample was only about 40 something hands which isn't too bad. I rarely saw him get involved. If the board was something like 9-7-Q, I could put him on a set more easily seeing how he limped in first. But on a 4-2-Q rainbow board I don't know how a tight rock could limp in with a small pocket pair first. So it was 50/50 he could have had KQ/AQ or a set. I called all the way down and lost to 22. Oh well.. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[lu_hawk]

Does someone that passive bet 3-bet with TP? I think the best you can hope for is KQ, you split with AQ(he probably doesn't raise this with 2% PFR), or you lose to a set. I guess it's also possible he was going for the LRR with AA or KK but just flat called your raise because it was HU. You need to win about 1/3 of the time to make calling down profitable, I would call down but I think it is close.

[Monty Cantsin]

Here's mike l's uxorial suggestion: "NO DONT BE RIDICULOUS YOU HAVE TOP PAIR TOP KICKER YOU NEED TO PAY OFF, NO DONT FOLD. CALL!"

How many hands do you have against this guy? If he's as squeaky-tight as it looks a fold isn't out of the question. If he has a set you are drawing almost dead. He might have limped with AA (2 outs) or KK (5 outs). The pot's not that big.

But PT stats can be surprisingly poor at predicting opponent behavior. PT averages out behavior, it is necessarily blurry. He might never raise and still be a weirdo. Maybe the few times he did raise it was with some tricky thing. Ok, probably not, but how uncertain do you have to be to make folding a mistake?

I would probably call down because I play an fairly unimaginative game and use a lot of rules of thumb, one of which is don't fold TPTK heads up.

/mc