Bubble Play - Fold or Push

[Phill S]

Scenario:
10+1 on pokerroom, ive been getting junk all game, taking down small pots here and there. when it got to 5 handed the stacks were me on ~2K, Big stacks ~5.5K each and two small stacks <1K.

i folded my junk hands, when one got knocked out and the other guy sat out. he stayed sat out for a fair few orbits.

stacks:
Hero (SB) 1495
BigStack1 (BB) 7080
SatOut 135
BigStack2 (button) 6290

Blinds 150/300

Hero is deal A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

PF Action:SatOut auto folds, BigStack2 calls 300, hero ???
_________

i can fold out here for 3rd, with enough of a stack that i can probably play myself higher.

or do i challenge for higher spots now by pushing, and if i get 4th so be it.

the reads i have is that the limper here has been raising with proper hands preflop, however can limp with junk. he called the last small stack to knock him out with Ax.

How do _you_ play this?
___________
i dont think the results matter, but here they are in white:
<font color="white"> PRE-FLOP
SatOut folds, BigStack2 calls $300, Hero bets $1,345 and is all-in, BigStack1 folds, BigStack2 calls $1,195.

FLOP [board cards 10S,JC,7H ]
TURN [board cards 10S,JC,7H,10C ]
RIVER [board cards 10S,JC,7H,10C,KS ]

SHOWDOWN
Hero shows [ AH,KD ]
BigStack2 shows [ 7S,AC ]
BlueEmu wins $3,290. - heart attack diverted after that flop
</font>

Phill

[lorinda]

I like to call in this spot, and if I flop one, then I'll take my chance.

Lori

[Phill S]

doh [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] its worrying that in the heat of battle i didnt even think of just calling and seeing the flop. hmm

anyone else differ?

Phill

[Klak]

i like the call in this particular case as well. however, if there wasnt a sitting out player with only 125 chips left, this would be a push all day.

[rachelwxm]

Hi, Phil,
Think it this way, if botton push, would you call? ICM says you need to getting 3.5:1 odds to call, so it's easy fold. Giving you don't have mush FE here, I won't push.
Calling is OK if those big stacks are not that tricky, otherwise you are wasting your chips if they move in. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Phill S]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi, Phil,
Think it this way, if botton push, would you call? ICM says you need to getting 3.5:1 odds to call, so it's easy fold. Giving you don't have mush FE here, I won't push.
Calling is OK if those big stacks are not that tricky, otherwise you are wasting your chips if they move in. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

why do i need 3.5:1 according to the ICM. please go into detail there cos i dont get it.

cos i have AK, so im either big fave or slim dog (assuming they dont have KK or AA).

Phill

[rachelwxm]

equity for
folding 22.4
allin and win 28.8 (not much more than sure 3rd prize 20)
so you need 3.5:1 or better.
Unless you put him on a K or A, pushing is -EV here.