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#1
11-12-2004, 05:12 PM
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Can this be + EV
Say you make a 3-4 team NFL parlay, and you bet 2-3 of the favorites on Sunday, on the moneyline. Then your last team in the parlay is the Monday night game, and you take the dog on the moneyline, to boost the value of your parlay. After the favorites on Sunday win, you hedge your bet on the MNF game. My thought process tells me this can be +EV, so I figured I'd try it for a few weeks w/ very small bets. This week I have the Pats -360 and the Colts -440 as well as the 'Boys on Monday night at +240. This pays slightly more than 4-1. Now this isn't a lock, but I only need the Pats and Colts to win before I can hedge and make a guaranteed profit, and those two both winning is much better than 4-1. Please let me know your thoughts and let me know if I'm on to something or if I'm just nuts.
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#2
11-12-2004, 06:14 PM
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Re: Can this be + EV
I always thought hedging was diluting your return, basically adding extra vig. You win less that you should have.
Shouldn't a sports bet be similar to a poker bet? If you bet with a positive expectation (as much as that is possible with sports), then the results stand alone from anything else you may do. I've never understood the logic of hedging. If you think a second bet is worth making, then make that bet on its own. It's just like "insurance" at blackjack- you aren't "hedging" anything, you're making another bet on something else. JMHO
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#3
11-12-2004, 08:53 PM
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Re: Can this be + EV
Well, lets work this out... if you just take the colts and the pats to win, 2 team parlay (100/64) and adding the cowboys makes it a staggering 100/457.
Alright, so you start the day with 500 in your account. If you just leave the bet alone and make it to monday, then you will have a chance to turn your 500 bankroll into 957. That leaves 457 profit to mess with a hedge. I have philly at -280, so you're sitting there monday night and u have 400 left in your account with the big game coming and you decided to bet 280 on the eagles, bringing your account down to 120. If philly wins, then your account is replensihed to the original 500. If philly loses, then your account jumps to 677. So you turn that monday night game into either a non-losing weekend or a +177 weekend. Seems like a lot of work, but i suppose that with the colts and the pats looking good, and only getting 100/64... then maybe this is a good plan. Lets run another situation. If you parlay the colts, pats, and eagles you get 100/122... so if you start with 500 and u make 2 parlays bringing your total down to 300... you are looking at either winning 22 or winning 357, that is if you get through the two games on sunday. Who knows... I think the sportsbooks have made it impossible to ever have a sure thing. I mean, they wouldn't be in business if they didn't rape us every weeek. I suggest you check out www.sportsbook.com and check out a thing on there that says "Betting trends" and you can see how people bet and how much sportsbook made last weekend. It's pretty sick. Sorry if this is hard to follow, but I hope it helps
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#4
11-13-2004, 06:13 PM
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Re: Can this be + EV
Easy,
you're right in your thoughts on hedging. I think it does become an option, however, when gamblers are suddenly faced with winning money that is significant to them for a small investment. You see this in parlays or pools. In and of itself, I agree with your thoughts on hedging. But during the WS, for example, when some bettors were faced with a $1,000-or-nothing Game 7 then the hedge becomes fine, I think, if that's a significant amount of money to the guy with the bet. ElSapo
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#7
11-13-2004, 08:20 PM
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Re: Can this be + EV
My thoughts were that adding the dog on the moneyline boosts the value of the parlay by quite bit, and that would be enough to make hedging profitable.
What you are talking about doing is exactly equivalent to playing only the first two teams, winning, then going to a roulette wheel and betting half your proceeds on black and half on red. You are just betting both sides of the same game, paying the vig on each side.
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