My problem with semi bluffing here...

[bernie]

I hate this situation. I know i should raise here, but i dont. Comments appreciated.

Full game, folded to me on the button and i raise with As4d.

SB folds, BB 3 bets, i call.

Flop 4s 8s Th

BB bets, i raise, bb 3bet, i call

Turn Qs

BB bets, i call.

I know i should raise this. The problem is i know he isn't folding here. He very likely has a hand better than mine and he is most likely to be going to showdown regardless of what i do. This is a textbook spot to raise this, yet knowing he isn't going to fold and it's likely going to showdown tends to keep me from betting here. This player, even shorthanded, isn't likely to play this way postflop without something good in his hand. I think if i'm going to call it out, as i did in this hand, i should raise it here. Then if i miss, take the free showdown if given one.

This also happens to me in other semibluff spots at times. That thought of knowing they aren't folding and showdown committed stops me.

Any ideas?

b

[bunky9590]

Hey b,

If he's not going to fold, no sense in firing the second bullet. Call. You may be looking at a three bet.

Improve your hand and then smack him around. FWIW, I don;t raise in that particular hand either.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

hey bernie,

if you think your fours are showdown worthy you should definitely raise this turn and check behind unimproved and bet the river if a spade, 4 or A falls (or maybe even a thin value bet unimproved if you think you're good 50+% of the time here)

the real problem that people have with this play is that the opponent might throw a 3-bet back in their faces or he'll lead the river anyways. if you think your opponent is likely to do this then calling is fine.

[bobbyi]

Hi Bernie. It seems that you are asking a question to which you already know the answer. So I'm not sure how to answer it without telling you things you already know. So sorry if this all seems obvious:

Poker 101. There are three reasons we normally raise here
<ul type="square">[*]Because the opponent might fold a better hand. This is obviously a big one. It doesn't apply here because you don't believe your opponent will fold a better hand.[*]Because you will get a free showdown. Rather than calling a river bet, you can check behind. So if you miss, the raise costs you nothing. This also doesn't apply. First, if you are that sure that he has you beat, then you can call his turn bet and fold on the river if you miss (obviously a dangerous plan if you aren't sure that he has you beat, but it sounds like you are). So you are paying for a showdown you otherwise might not have bought, which means you aren't getting something for free. Second, he seems to like his hand, so he may three-bet and/ or bet the river. However, the flush card hitting on the turn protects you against this somewhat since it is hard for him to reraise here without a flush. Still, there is no real chance of saving money by raising and you will often lose extra by doing so.[*]If you never raise the turn as bluff/ semibluff, then your opponents will have an automatically profitable strategy in betting their medium-strenght hands (with few outs) on the turn and folding to a raise. This is a big one. We ordinarily need to raise sometimes with light hands or drawing hands to provide cover for the times when we have the nuts. We don't want to give our opponents the opportunity to follow a simple and automatically profitable strategy. However, countering that only requires you to sometimes raise in spots like this. You might as well make those times be the ones when you also have some chance of making an opponent fold. This is similar to the idea that the "advertising value" of a bluff is not negligible, but generally isn't enough by itself to make a hopeless bluff correct.[/list]As you can see, none of the normal reasons really apply. It's silly to raise heads up when you are sure that you are beat and that your opponent won't fold and raising now won't save you money later. Just call.

Btw, where have you been recently? I haven't seen you at muck in a while. Are we just playing at different times? I guess that's probably better for me anyway; maybe the fact that I haven't had to play against you is the reason that I'm suddenly running good [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's not going to fold, no sense in firing the second bullet. Call. You may be looking at a three bet

[/ QUOTE ]

If he 3 bets, then i know for sure that i'd have to improve to win, thus i can check fold unimproved on the river. Shouldn't i at least give him a chance to fold here, even if it's remote? I may be underestimating his possibility to fold here. He only has to fold 1 in 7 times in this spot.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
the real problem that people have with this play is that the opponent might throw a 3-bet back in their faces or he'll lead the river anyways. if you think your opponent is likely to do this then calling is fine.


[/ QUOTE ]

If this player 3 bets, my main worry then is if an A comes if it makes him 2 pair. Which im then check calling the river. If i miss, i can check fold. He isn't 3 betting on a bluff or semi bluff here.

[ QUOTE ]
if you think your fours are showdown worthy you should definitely raise this turn and check behind unimproved and bet the river if a spade, 4 or A falls (or maybe even a thin value bet unimproved if you think you're good 50+% of the time here)


[/ QUOTE ]

This is why i think i should've raised. Though, i dont think my 4 is good, im not sure enough to just check fold the river, just in case. However, if he calls the raise, i know he now more likely has better so a bet on the river isn't likely to fold him. He calls the turn, he's calling the river. It's not even close to 50% that i'd be good here unimproved.

b

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
It's not even close to 50% that i'd be good here unimproved.


[/ QUOTE ]

I know, I was just saying hypothetically. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

factor in how often this guy may fold a better hand and how often you'll be good on the river unimproved, this is a good time to raise.

i posted a hand in the stud forum not too long ago that had this same scenerio on 6th street. i made kings up on 5th street with a 4-flush, up against a probable aces up. given the size of the pot, i had to probably see a showdown.

snakehead made a great response to it by saying since i have to see a showdown (and call a river bet) anyways i should raise 6th street and get a free showdown on 7th if i don't improve, but i get to collect an extra bet on 7th the times that i do improve.

so raising in these spots are +EV, if you think your hand is good enough to showdown. obviously if you're 3-bet on the turn, then you can fold unimproved, but you can still win anyways when you do improve.

so i guess when making these decisions, you factor in the pot odds you're getting for calling down the turn and river versus how often you think you'll win unimproved. then add in the times he might fold a better hand to your turn raise and the fact you can collect an extra bet on the river if you do catch one of your outs.

sorry long post, rambling. but i'm sure you knew all of this. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[bernie]

Lots to chew on here.

[ QUOTE ]
Because the opponent might fold a better hand. This is obviously a big one. It doesn't apply here because you don't believe your opponent will fold a better hand

[/ QUOTE ]

I may be underestimating this.

[ QUOTE ]
It's silly to raise heads up when you are sure that you are beat and that your opponent won't fold and raising now won't save you money later. Just call

[/ QUOTE ]

If the cost is the same between raising/checking behind on the river and just calling it out, then shouldn't the possibility of him folding, even if unlikely come into play as the added incentive to raise the turn here? Hope i asked that right.

[ QUOTE ]
Btw, where have you been recently? I haven't seen you at muck in a while. Are we just playing at different times? I guess that's probably better for me anyway; maybe the fact that I haven't had to play against you is the reason that I'm suddenly running good

[/ QUOTE ]

Im usually playing evenings. With the new wed tourney, i may start playing then too. Saturday is football day. I dont play as much if there's a pac 10 game on at night.

If you see me, get in my game. Im on a horrendous streak. Going on about 2 months now. Blowing chips. Even the dealers, i've talked to a few, have noticed how bad im running right now. I'll probably move down to 10-20 til i get out of it. Which sucks because the game is fantastic. But i need a couple wins for confidence reasons. Get my head back on str8. Im 2nd guessing myself a bit too much right now even when i know im doing the right play. That and the fact im calling down a bit too much. They can't 'always' have it, can they? Well, yes, they have had it alot lately. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

btw...The type of hand i posted has always been kind of a thorn in my side that i'm working on. I usually underestimate the guy folding, but due that im on a bad run, the estimation may be jaded even a little more.

b

[bernie]

You and snakehead echoed my thoughts to bobby's post. If the cost is the same, why not go the added road of him possibly folding? Now that im thinking of it, I have position, why not use it a little? If i didn't, then it's a different matter.

[ QUOTE ]
sorry long post, rambling. but i'm sure you knew all of this

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, the responses have helped me get my thinking back on track a little better. Not just for this hand but for situations like this. As i mentioned, i hate this spot. Playing so much LL, where semibluffing is basically useless, i neglected this part of the game for a bit so it deteriorated from lack of use. If that makes any sense. Like it's the peashooter in my arsenal.

b

[Malcom Reynolds]

This is a textbook spot to raise this, yet knowing he isn't going to fold and it's likely going to showdown tends to keep me from betting here.
The thing about semi-bluffing is that there has to be a reasonable probability for the villian to fold in this situation, for semi-bluffing to be a profitable play. If your read is that he won't fold enough % of the time for a semi-bluff to be profitable, then clearly don't do it.