This O8 play cost me my stack

[knuteboy34]

First of all let me say I've been reading posts here for two weeks now and I value your input and knowledge.

Could someone give me advice as to whether I played this correctly or not.

Ultimate Bet Pot-Limit Omaha/8, $.25 BB (8 handed) converter

Button ($30.60)
SB ($32.20)
BB ($34.90)
UTG ($6.95)
UTG+1 ($22.75)
Hero ($26.95)
MP2 ($20.25)
CO ($24.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, <font color="CC3333">CO raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25.

Flop: ($2.35) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $2.35</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">CO raises to $4.7</font>, UTG+1 calls $4.70, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $21.15</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO raises to $23.5</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $23.5</font>, Hero calls $0.

Turn: ($70.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>

River: ($70.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>

Final Pot: $70.50
<font color="green">Main Pot: $70.50, between UTG+1, Hero and CO.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Scooped by CO ($70.50).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG+1 has 8h Ad Kh 3h (High: full house, eights full of aces).
Hero has Td 2s 2c 4d (Low: 8, 4, 3, 2, A | High: full house, twos full of eights).
CO has Ac Ah 5d 6h (Low: 6, 5, 3, 2, A | High: full house, aces full of eights).
Outcome: CO wins $70.50. </font>

I thought I had best high hand on flop. I was right but was going all in too aggresive? Should I have just called the CO on the flop?

[Implied Evens]

"I thought I had best high hand on flop. I was right but was going all in too aggresive? Should I have just called the CO on the flop? "

2 4 isn't an exceptionally strong hand to win the low to begin with, and as soon as you paired your 2 on the flop, you should have expected to lose the low hand.

Given that - my opinion is that going all in on the flop was way too aggressive because you risked your whole stack with a reasonable expectation of winning only half the pot.

[vetman81]

Fold this hand PF. You have a long shot at low and a really poor high hand. A T high flush wont hold up, and bottom set is a bad hand to have.

On the flop, you may have the best hand, but at this level, you arent going to get anyone to fold an 8, especially if they have a low to back it up. Since you can account for 3 of the 4 deuces, then you are probably right thinking that you have the best hand on the flop. The problem is, there are going to be up to 18 cards that can give the two 8s a bigger boat, not to mention someone with a bigger pair catching their card. I would have probably just check called here on the flop and folded to the action on the turn which was sure to be a lot due to one guy with A8 and the other with AA. This hand is junk, fold it PF and save your money.

[emp1346]

well my two cents is that while i agree mostly with vetman, i wouldn't necessarily fold this PF... i think i'd at least see a flop and then play from there...

since you were in the hand, though, definately too agressive though after the flop...

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought I had best high hand on flop. I was right but was going all in too aggresive? Should I have just called the CO on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Knuteboy - This isn't exactly the right forum for you to use. I think you generally get a better response regarding pot limit Omaha-8 hands on the forum for pot limit Omaha.

I don't think you have a decent starting hand either for limit Omaha-8 or pot-limit Omaha-8.

But if you are going to play that hand, once you see the flop, I think you want to be all-in.

And then you had a bit of bad luck. It happens.

Buzz

[B Mando]

First of all....fold it preflop, but if for example everyone limped to you in the BB And you saw the flop for free you have to play this hand very carefully just because you have dueces full against an almost definite 8s full, I know it sounds crazy but it almost seems like a fold...As soon as I started reading this post I knew exactly what the out come was going to be. Lets put it this way, you flopped the full house and lets say that no one else did, but someone had the 8...which they did, this means they also have 3 other cards in their hand with which they can make a bigger full house, giving them 9 outs, so its like a flush draw, 36.6 percent..I think that you will lose this entire pot, If you must just call all the way down and dont give the person with the 8 any reason to push really hard, and if you win, you win a small one, but I would say its better than losing a big one like you did....but this all started because you played the hand in the first place...ITS OK though, when I first started playing I used to always want to play hands like this too, but then I realized that is just is not profitable...a hand like 10 2 2 4 really only has low potential if a A and trey come on the flop...there really isnt much to this hand, even if you do flop a set like you did, its the lowest set which means that you are going to be very very vunerable to bigger full houses...

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
you have dueces full against an almost definite 8s full

[/ QUOTE ]

B Mando - I don't think so.

[ QUOTE ]
I know it sounds crazy but it almost seems like a fold...

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't sound crazy - just a bit too tight post flop.

[ QUOTE ]
As soon as I started reading this post I knew exactly what the out come was going to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. Knuteboy flopped a full house. If he doesn't lose with it by getting out-drawn on the turn or river, he has no motivation to post. However, we should be more interested in what the best play is than in the results. When people do poorly with a particular hand sometimes it's because of poor play, but other times it's simply because of a unfavorable distribution. When the odds are four to one in favor of a certain outcome, there's still that one time out of five when things work out the other way.

[ QUOTE ]
lets say that no one else did, but someone had the 8...which they did, this means they also have 3 other cards in their hand with which they can make a bigger full house, giving them 9 outs, so its like a flush draw, 36.6 percent

[/ QUOTE ]

Not exactly. Knuteboy’s opponent, if holding an unpaired hand with an eight - and having no overlap with Knuteboy's hand - would have ten outs, not nine outs.

To easily see it, take 2s-2c-4d-Td and 8s-8d-2h out of a deck. Then also take out 8c-7c-6d-5h to represent a hand with an eight. Left in the stub are three fives plus three sixes plus three sevens plus one eight. <font color="white">_</font>(Of course if you took 8c-7c-6d-4h out of the deck for an opponent’s hand, then the opponent would have nine outs - or if you took 8c-7c-Td-4h out of the deck for an opponent’s hand, then the opponent would have eight outs, etc.).

<font color="green">Aside:
But any way you did it, it wouldn’t be “like a flush draw, 36.6 percent.” The 36.6% (actually 36.4%) is from your own perspective for your own hand after you see your hand and the flop and there are 2 cards of the flush suit in your hand and 2 cards of the flush suit on the flop. You know seven cards.
Here’s the math: 1-36/45*35/44 = 0.364. 36.4 is the per cent of the time you figure to make your heart draw.

Figured for a flush draw an opponent might have, when the flop was
7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], if you held A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], you might put an opponent on two hearts, and two non-hearts. In that case, you “know” eleven cards instead of seven.
hhn,hhnn,nnnn
Here’s the math: 1-32/41*31/40 = 0.395. 39.5 is the per cent of the time your opponent figures to make a heart draw when you have no hearts yourself.

Want the percentage of the time your opponent figures to make a heart draw when you have one heart yourself? It's 35.6%.
(1-33/41*32/40 = 0.3561).
End aside. </font>

If Knuteboy knew an opponent held an eight and that the opponent also had a low draw, then knuteboy would be an underdog. For the eleven cards pre-selected from the deck in the previous paragraph, from twodimes.net:
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 8s 8d 2h
cards---------scoop--HIwin--HIlos--LOwin--LOlos----EV
2s 2c Td 4d----190----474--346-------27-----88----0.421
8c 7c 6d 5h----319----346--474------583-----27----0.579

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 8s 8d 2h
cards---------scoop--HIwin--HIlos--LOwin--LOlos-----EV
2s 2c Td 4d---504----504--316-----160-----0----0.615
9c 8c Jh Th----316----316--504--------0-----0----0.385

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 8s 8d 2h
cards---------scoop--HIwin--HIlos--LOwin--LOlos-----EV
2s 2c Td 4d---600----600--220------160-----0----0.732
9c 8c Jd Jh----220----220--600--------0------0----0.268

Without any pre-flop selectivity, roughly three times out of five at
least one opponent of the four opponents who saw the flop will hold at least one eight. Here’s the math:
C(45,16)-C(43,16)/C(45,16) = 0.5899.

But the thing is, there has been some selectivity before the flop. Three opponents folded before the flop. There is probably a less than random chance one of the four remaining opponents holds an eight, less than a probability of 0.5899 that one of the four remaining opponents holds an eight.

When an opponent doesn’t have an eight, Knuteboy has an EV greater than 0.500. From twodimes.net:
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 8s 8d 2h
cards---------scoop--HIwin--HIlos--LOwin--LOlos----EV
2s 2c Td 4d----235--670----150------- 9--120----0.552
Ac 3c Kd Kh----150--150----670-----495-----0----0.448

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 8s 8d 2h
cards---------scoop--HIwin--HIlos--LOwin--LOlos----EV
2s 2c Td 4d----231--818------2------- 0----115----0.640
Ac 3c 5h 4h------2------2---818-----589-------0----0.360

It’s not a great sampling, but I think it shows that when Knuteboy’s opponent doesn’t have an eight, Knuteboy is the favorite. Even when the hand opposing Knuteboy has an eight, but no shot at low, Knuteboy is a favorite.

It’s only when the hand opposing Knuteboy has an eight and also a shot at low, that knuteboy is the underdog, and then by only 3 to 2.

• In a limit ring game, I’d try to get all-in before the flop. A flopped full house, even an underboat, is a clear favorite for high when only four opponents see the flop. The sims were for one-on-one, but with more opponents, you’d still be the favorite for high and would be collecting more from the multiple low draws.
• In a tourament, it would depend.
• In a pot-limit game, I don’t know, but I think I want to be all-in before the flop.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[knuteboy34]

Thanks guys for your insight. You all gave me a lot to chew on.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T, 2, 2, 4.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, CO raises to $0.5, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is as far as I read in this post. Why are you calling this, let alone for a raise? What possible scoops can you get out of 2-2-410s?? Horrible call.

[B Mando]

Very good points, and some of my comments may have leaned a little to much towards the tight side of play, but I would nt risk my entire stack on something that is not farther ahead than was stated by the EV stats...he wasnt going to get the guy off his 8 so why not just call him down...just what I would do though, and with 10 outs...that would be more like 40 percent right???