Why Jacksonville Must Cover!

[JesusSmurf]

I saw the line on the Indy/Jacks set at (Indy a fav -3.5). This is a sucker line if I have ever seen one. Lets take a look at the facts shall we.

Peyton Manning 3 games 904 yds passing 9 TDS
Byron Leftwich 3 games 391 yds passing 3 TDS

Edggerin James 3 games 328 yds rushing 3 TDS
Fred Taylor 3 games 210 yds rushing 0 TDS

Marv Harrison 3 games 207 yds recieve 2 TDs
Jimmy Smith 3 games 210 yds recieve 0 TDS

Now by just taking a brief look at the top three offensive player stats of these two teams you would think INDY would cover this game easily. But it just cant happen for the simple reason that there is no such thing as a free lunch.

Any moron can see that Indy is such a better team than Jacksonville, so why is the line so low? Why is Indy only favored by 3 points? It is a sucker bet to trap the novice into betting on Indy. Do you really think people just want to give you easy money.

The bottom line is if the line dont make sense you must bet the opposite side. If NE was 30 point underdogs to Cincy, you would have to take Cincy to cover.

How many times have you lost a lock because you knew a team was way better than the other, yet you still bet the better team to cover and they lost? Happens all the time.
I.E. Jacks vs Denver week 2. Denver goes off in week one, Jacks wins a very ugly game in week one. So all the novices dump their money on Denver to destroy Jacksonville in week 2 because the line was only Den -3. Well we all know the outcome of that sucker bet. Jacks win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That is just my opinion. Flame away if you must. Jesus

[Easy E]

The bookies control the final outcome of the game! And I thought they played it on the field....


Now, here's a question for you- everyone else made Monday's Dallas/Wash game -2 Redskins. Lori and I made it -2.5 Dallas... and lo and behold, the Cowboys win by 3, just like I planned it!

Eureka! We've proved your theory!! Now, does this only work for good defense vs. good offense games, or can it be applied to any game that you deem meets "the criteria" ?

I expect to retire by November now...

[kyro]

in other words jesus, you need to have some sort of reasoning as to why Jax will either win or lose by less than 3. Just because the line doesn't "seem" right, doesn't mean it isn't. If you can't come with any good reasons why Jax should cover, Indy would be the better pick.

[Beerfund]

[ QUOTE ]
If NE was 30 point underdogs to Cincy, you would have to take Cincy to cover.


[/ QUOTE ]

i sure as hell would!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[JesusSmurf]

I am simply saying that usually if it is to good to be true it is. If a legitmate wagering facility such as Vegas offered even money on you to beat Tiger Woods at golf. Everyone would put their money on Tiger. But why? Why is Vegas offering even money? That is what you have to ask yourself before you place a wager. There is usally a weird line that doesnt make sense every two to three weeks. When you find it you have to exploit it. By the way if Vegas put the bet up against you and Tiger(You getting no strokes/ 18 holes) I would bet on you to win. I dont even give a [censored] if you have never played the game before. Because obviously someone knows something I dont!!!!!!!!!!!

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
By the way if Vegas put the bet up against you and Tiger(You getting no strokes/ 18 holes) I would bet on you to win. I dont even give a [censored] if you have never played the game before. Because obviously someone knows something I dont!!!!!!!!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

That's bad thinking. You make a bet on me against Tiger, I will secretly bet on Tiger, play the best golf of my life, and still collect on you. I will say it again. If you can't come up with any valid reasons why Jax will cover on Indy, PICK INDY.

(Personally, I'm passing on Indy because Jacksonville's 3-0 start, while overrated, is still impressive. It wouldn't surprise me to see Jacksonville knock them off. But if the Patriots were playing my old high school team and gave them -1, I would pick the Patriots for A LOT OF FRIGGIN money.)

[craig r]

I think what Jesus is saying is that, one should try to figure out why the linesmaker has the line that he does. but, if a number seems off by a lot, and you can't figure out why, there is probably something that you are missing. i know Sklansky mentions this in one of his books (can't remember which one now).

craig

[JesusSmurf]

To start with i know the answer you are looking for is " Well Jacks has won 5 of its last 6 games agianst Indy when BLAH BLAH BLAH happened. Then Indy is 14 and 1 ATS the next game after scoring more than 42 pts. And I could go on and on. Well unfortuantely this is not the method I use. I use the method of other people doing the work, establishing a line and then the money moving the line.

My reasoning is this. People spend excessive amounts of time researching and studying and anylyzing teams. Then a line is established. Well if the line doesnt make sense to the people (All of Us), then we must believe that they know somehting we dont. I personally exploit this and take advantage of it. Look at like this how many people make bets that cant lose and then they lose. Happens all the time! The reason being they dont have the insider information and statistics to see the big picture. I dont either, but when I see a line that doesnt make sense I bet the opposite and I swear it hits more than not. I have hit a number of 2 to 4 game parlays using this strategy. The way I have always written it off is THEY MUST KNOW SOMETHING I DONT! I cant explain it in any other way than that.

[JesusSmurf]

[ QUOTE ]
(Personally, I'm passing on Indy because Jacksonville's 3-0 start, while overrated, is still impressive. It wouldn't surprise me to see Jacksonville knock them off. But if the Patriots were playing my old high school team and gave them -1, I would pick the Patriots for A LOT OF FRIGGIN money.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah and you would lose alot of money. You have to ask yourself this main question. Why is my old HS team only getting 1 point against a professional team? WHY? WHY? and WHY? Doesnt make any sense. What Vegas is just giving away money now. No they are not, someone somewhere knows something you don't. That is all!~

[NoChance]

The simple explanation for the low line is DEFENSE.

Why have Manning and the Colts not gone to the Super Bowl? It's because defensive teams have always shut him down.

Even when San Francisco was scoring points and winning Super Bowls, their defense was always ranked 1 or 2. What happened to Minnesota a few years back when they went 15-1? Defense shut them out.

I am in no way saying the proper play is jacksonville. I am simply giving you a different perspective.