Random hand check-up - part 3

Quercus · #1 09-30-2004, 12:50 PM

UTG+2 plays every hand, but is not particularly aggressive.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero 3-bets, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+2 caps, Hero calls.

Standard.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, UTG+2 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG+2 calls.

Standard. I've put UTG+2 on an ace with good to high kicker.

Turn: (8.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 bets, Hero calls.

Hrmm. I'm not sure about my read here. His preflop and flop play seems too aggressive for AT. The only set that I can see him on is aces, but I know where two of them are, so I don't think he's got the other two.

I decide AT is more likely than anything else and slow down. Too weak?

River: (10.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 bets, Hero calls.

I have no idea why I just called here - still paranoid about a set, I guess. Flush seems very unlikely.

wabe · #2 09-30-2004, 02:10 PM

He certainly doesn't respect your raises and reraises. I find it hard to believe, though, that he would bet postflop like that with the usual 3-bet pocket pairs (KK, QQ, JJ, TT) after getting capped on the flop.

Like you say, though, he bets like he has a set. 66?

stinkypete · #3 09-30-2004, 02:31 PM

based on the preflop betting, you couldn't possibly be behind any hand but AA. knowing that you have one ace and the board has another, AK is a much more likely holding.

but given that its party 1/2, he could have AQ, AJ, KK, QQ, JJ or even AT (or some completely random hand once in a blue moon). combined, these are probably slightly more likely than AA, but i don't think it's enough to raise for value and risk being 3-bet by AA. he might even fold a weaker hand (like KK, QQ, JJ) if you raise the turn. i think the call down is correct here.

runa · #4 09-30-2004, 04:19 PM

The fact that UTG+2 plays every hand (I did read that correctly right?) but not agressively makes this very interesting. Would you happen to know this opponent's raising requirements?

On the turn UTG+2 bets into you again, but I don't think its because of the 10 given the flop action.

On the river you are behind AA, KK, tie AK, all of which are most likely holdings for this kind of action. I would just call.

SomethingClever · #5 09-30-2004, 04:31 PM

Sometimes I fire one more raise on the turn. Some guys go crazy with hands like AQ or AJ on the cheap street.

Heck he could have AK also.

If you lost to AA, don't worry about it.

I don't put him on 66 or 44. Who raises and caps with 66 in his position, other than a maniac?

So, in order of likelihood, here are my guesses.

AK for the chop
AQ
AJ
AT
QQ
KK
JJ

wabe · #6 09-30-2004, 04:49 PM

Yeah, I threw the 66 out there, as I can't understand a play like this without AA, AK, or AQ. He gets capped on the flop and comes out betting with the T. KQs, then, with a busted straight draw?

Cosimo · #7 09-30-2004, 05:00 PM

I want a read on his raising standards preflop.

Some players have an conditional aggro gene--normally passive players, but give them some action and they go crazy. That's probably what happened here: he decided to bully his way to victory.

Preflop: I'd put him on any ace.

Flop: After getting three-bet, I'd start to worry. (I just don't see that at UB very often.) Go ahead and cap the flop, you need to keep the pressure on.

Turn: When he bets into you on, he could be trying to bluff you off again (he knows that it looks strong, but the question is why is he making that play). Tricky player or straightforward one? Does he 3-bet his flopped set or does he wait for the turn? Does he bluff on the turn after missing the flop?

It is passivity combined with weakness that makes players get to the turn and then fold. This guy knows that many players will give up on the turn, but he hasn't made the connection to weakness and passivity. Nor is he likely to have a read on you. So, if he's being tricky, it's because he is always tricky.

River: Now I'm feeling bad about that turn call. Either I've got just enough to make a crying call to his aces, or I've been way ahead the whole time and just got a chance to crush him. I think the rule is: if you're confused, raise.

I actually don't know how often players will play a missed or weak hand this strongly against someone else. I have seen some maniacs go at each other with inside draws or TPNK. They're rare, though, and often it's the sort of manic-depressive crazy that only occasionally surfaces. Personally, I'd give him credit for a strong hand but call down anyway. This guy has the potential to be an ATM.