i was vilified for this call (Super Thurs - 11 left)

Che · #1 09-17-2004, 03:32 AM

I was thoroughly berated for making this call - mostly by morons, but also by a 2+2er (who shall remain nameless) who happens to be an excellent cash game player.

11 left in the Super Thursday tourney. I'm in 9th. No one at the other table is below 50K.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t4000 (5 handed)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP (t181460)
Button (t19264)
SB (t15056)
Hero (t37281)
UTG (t58938)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, SB raises to t15056 (All-In), Hero calls t11056.

Flop: (t30112) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t30112) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t30112) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t30112
Main Pot: t30112 (t30112), between SB and Hero.

Please convince me that this was a bad play. I need educating, apparently.

Thanks,
Che

LokiV · #2 09-17-2004, 03:55 AM

Your were getting even money for poor odds. I at best he had ace/low, at 2nd best he had two overcards, third best he had a pocket below a jack but above a 6.

I will just nod if you say 'blind defense' but it was a 3x your blind raise for no additional money if you hit.

Results don't really matter, neither does seeing the flop. but having seen it, I know you lost.

Che · #3 09-17-2004, 03:59 AM

LokiV-

[ QUOTE ]
Results don't really matter

[/ QUOTE ]

This part of your post is certainly correct, but you might want to check back tomorrow when I post my explanation regarding the rest of what you said. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Later,
Che

gergery · #4 09-17-2004, 04:03 AM

You're getting 2:1 on your money, and J5o is a 2:1 dog vs. the top 40% of hands. But he's shortstacked too, so i figure he pushes with at least that, so on balance its probably chipEV positive.

You also have a chance for the big money if you win this but still have 5xBB if you lose.

Net, I think its pretty close, but call is on balance probably more correct. I'll guess he had some piece of cheese like 98s and you won, since you're taking crap for it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

--Greg

flytrap · #5 09-17-2004, 04:05 AM

It might look like you have odds, but there is a decent chance he's got you dominated. His raise screams steal, but his garbage might be better than your garbage. You have enough chips that you aren't in desperation mode, so even if you think it's a close call, you should fold. If these people you were playing with were morons as you say, why gamble so much? Also, you didn't mention anything about the SB's play, so it's tough for me to put him on a hand. Perhaps you had good reason to believe he would make this move with any two, but without a description, how can I say what he had?

gergery · #6 09-17-2004, 04:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Your were getting even money for poor odds. I at best he had ace/low, at 2nd best he had two overcards, third best he had a pocket below a jack but above a 6.

I will just nod if you say 'blind defense' but it was a 3x your blind raise for no additional money if you hit.

but having seen it, I know you lost.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with everything in quotes above.

--Greg

Equal · #7 09-17-2004, 04:23 AM

I think you have to just let this one go regardless... look for a better spot.

45Player · #8 09-17-2004, 06:30 AM

Gergery states
“You're getting 2:1 on your money, and J5o is a 2:1 dog vs. the top 40% of hands.”

All very true, however the SB is in a desperate situation and badly needs chips.
So he could and probably would push with any two cards here. So against a random hand a call is +EV. If the players are reasonable then I’d say take a chance and call. You need a bit of luck to have a shot at winning the tournie, so you’re going to have to take a few chances. This looks like a place where you should take a chance.

However if the players are morons (as you suggest) then I would probably wait and hope for a situation where I have a bigger edge.

If calling is the wrong play here, then it’s not wrong by much.
Similarly for folding.
If that’s the worst play you made all night, then I think you played gooooood.

So, how did it, and the rest of the tournie go ?

betgo · #9 09-17-2004, 08:14 AM

I would call. You are getting almost 2-1 pot odds. You are a 2-1 dog against two overcards and almost a 4-1 dog against an overpair, but it is very unlikely you are up against an overpair. The SB doesn't need much of a hand to push, and it is more likely to be close to a coin flip.

Jason Strasser · #10 09-17-2004, 08:23 AM

Che,

This call is not good, and my reasoning comes down to the prize pool structure. cEV wise, this is borderline. I'm guessing if someone did the math it would yield that you were fairly close to 0cEV on this play.

But the way these multis work is that the good money is at the final table. I personally consider myself a good player, and I do not need to take risks like this late in mutlis. Sure, early on, go for it. I'm all for pushing tiny edges, etc... But not at this juncture. This spot is just too close and not worth it.

Too marginal for a good player like yourself,
-Jason