PL Hold em--playing a draw out of position

[joelmick]

Game is $10/$25 blind PL Hold em, live action, 7 handed

UTG calls, next player folds, I call with QcTc, cutoff calls, button folds, and small blind calls, bring pot to $125 preflop.

Flop AcKs4c. Checked to me, I bet $100, player in cutoff raises to $300. Everyone folds to me. Cutoff and I both have $2000-$3000 left.

I put my opponent on A4 or 44, though a flush draw is possible. I call, thinking that I likely have 11 outs (out of 45) on the turn, it is only costing me $200 to win $525, and I surely have good enough implied odds to justify a call even if I only get paid on an offsuit jack or when he's semi-bluffing a smaller flush draw. I don't reraise, as I am a dog if we get all-in and I am fairly certain my opponent will not fold.

Turn comes 8c. I bet $500, and my opponent folds.

After the hand, I wonder whether I should have checked the turn. I know that I would need to have checked both the turn and the river to possibly get more money out of him. My concern with checking is:
(1) He outdraws me on the river
(2) Another club comes on the river and he can't bet or call a bet anyway
(3) What if I held AsQc? Then I would want to bet out on the turn to get him to fold the worst hand. So if I always check my flush twice to him, then he knows when I bet out in this spot, I am semi-bluffing.

Anyway, the best I can figure is that I should bet out sometimes in this situation, and check to turn and river sometimes.

Any thoughts on whether I played it correctly, and on whether my thinking is valid?

[random]

The problem with betting is the stacks are still kind of deep so he knows he may be playing for his stack if you actually do have the flush and he wants to play. The pot is nothing spectacular, and you're out of position, so I vote against taking it down right here. If a four falls on the river, you can safely fold. Depending on your image and the read you have on your opponent, betting here can be a good play, but checking is rarely bad.

Other possible lines I would have taken:
1. Check
2. Bet less, maybe 300, don't pay off if board pairs.
3. Reraise on the flop to 600 to disguise your hand a bit more. Sometimes your opponent will do something like push, and you can fold. Sometimes he put you on AK, and try to pop you on the turn with 44. Sometimes he'll fold. Sometimes he'll just call and if a blank falls on the turn you can check to him and still get a free card out of position after showing so much strength.

[joelmick]

Great reply.

Further thoughts on your other suggested lines of play:
(1) Check--I assume he holds either A4 or 44, and since he'd only play A4s, it is 50/50 which he holds. So if I give him a free card and he takes it, he has on average 7 outs in 44 cards, and I'm giving him $115. The question is whether I make it up from the number of times he bets the turn (afraid to give me a free shot at a 4th club), or by my play on the river. I can't do anything about whether he bets the turn--knowing this player, I think he'd have checked. If the board pairs on the river, I would check-fold, and if it comes another club I cannot expect him to put in any money whether I bet or check. If the river comes a blank, though, I could either bet $300-$400 and probably get a call at that point, at least from 44, or I could check again. Thoughts on those two alternatives?

(2) Bet $300 on flop. I like this, as if he holds A4 he's taking the worst of it by calling, and if he holds 44 and I refuse to put any more money in if the board pairs, he's got expected value of about $0 on his call. Plus, if he does have 44, and I bet $300 on the turn and then check the river when a blank comes, he might bet the river.

(3) Reraise on the flop to $600. If the money were really deep, so that I could fold if he repops me, I might like this better. As it is, I am about 40% to win if I go all-in against a set on the flop, and if I raise to $600 and get reraised, I should be willing to put up to about $2600 more into the pot rather than fold. So it seems to me that if I'm going to call all-in anyway, I might as well make the max raise if I raise at all. But since I don't think he's folding to my reraise (large or small), it seems like it has to be better to flat call than to reraise, since I definitely have equity in the pot if I flat call, and I still have the above 2 options for deception in case I hit the flush.

As an aside, I have been known to limp UTG with AA, KK, or AK, but they have never seen me limp from middle-late position with those hands after somebody else has already limped in, because I never do it. And I am sure my opponent in this hand did not do it. (He told me later that he held A4s.) But this fact also makes it hard for me to repop him, as if he holds 44 he can be almost certain it is the nuts, and if he holds A4 only specifically 44 beats him, compared to several hands that I might repop with that do not (KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc).

[GimmeDaWatch]

I think its incredibly hard for him to call a pot-sized bet on the turn here unless you've consistently bluffed at flush draws in the past. As was mentioned before, he doesnt have pot odds to call, and the threat of a full sized bet on the river is very intimidating. I dont know anything about the player in question, but I think many players would call a medium sized bet ($275 or so) on the river since you could easily be value-betting a worse hand like AJ or AQ. Also, even betting the pot on the river looks more like a steal and is more likely to be called if youre known for being aggressive at all. If you're concerned about him drawing out for free, I think a medium sized bet on the turn would make calling much more enticing, especially if you make this same bet as a semi-bluff sometimes.

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
Game is $10/$25 blind PL Hold em, live action, 7 handed

UTG calls, next player folds, I call with QcTc, cutoff calls, button folds, and small blind calls, bring pot to $125 preflop.

Flop AcKs4c. Checked to me, I bet $100, player in cutoff raises to $300. Everyone folds to me. Cutoff and I both have $2000-$3000 left.

I put my opponent on A4 or 44, though a flush draw is possible. I call, thinking that I likely have 11 outs (out of 45) on the turn, it is only costing me $200 to win $525, and I surely have good enough implied odds to justify a call even if I only get paid on an offsuit jack or when he's semi-bluffing a smaller flush draw. I don't reraise, as I am a dog if we get all-in and I am fairly certain my opponent will not fold.

Turn comes 8c. I bet $500, and my opponent folds.

After the hand, I wonder whether I should have checked the turn. I know that I would need to have checked both the turn and the river to possibly get more money out of him. My concern with checking is:
(1) He outdraws me on the river
(2) Another club comes on the river and he can't bet or call a bet anyway
(3) What if I held AsQc? Then I would want to bet out on the turn to get him to fold the worst hand. So if I always check my flush twice to him, then he knows when I bet out in this spot, I am semi-bluffing.

Anyway, the best I can figure is that I should bet out sometimes in this situation, and check to turn and river sometimes.

Any thoughts on whether I played it correctly, and on whether my thinking is valid?

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you consider an allin on the flop? Obviously if the money were not so deep this would be a stronger play, but that's about the only way you would get some fold equity (he might put you on AAA or KKK), and as you point out you aren't really that far behind a set. I usually don't play this deep, so I'm not too familiar on the conventions; theoretically, it seems like a fairly powerful move.

Given your flop play, I think check turn/bet river and bet turn/bet river are equally good options.