Mid-level hand

[NegativeEV]

PP $50+5, blinds are 25/50, 7 players remain. Player chips are estimates.

SB (T1000)
BB (T1200)
UTG (T1200)
UTG+1(T1400)
Hero (T1200)
CO (T1100)
Btn (T900)

Hero is dealt AQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG+1 calls T50, Hero raises to T175, BB calls, UTG+1 folds. Read on BB is limited as he has shown down few hands to this point and his plays have not been note-worthy (generally straight-up).

Hero, BB see the flop (J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]). Pot is T425.

BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Pot is T425.

BB bets T200, Hero raises all in for T1025.

Comments, criticism please.

[poboys]

well, if he has a piece of the flop (or a pp) you are about a 2:1 dog to hit an overcard or a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. However if he's got AJ then you only have a 27% chance of winning this hand.

You're all-in raise screams bluff to me, and you are giving me nearly 2:1 on the call.

Personally, it's early, and I'd wait for a better situation to push.

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
well, if he has a piece of the flop (or a pp) you are about a 2:1 dog to hit an overcard or a . However if he's got AJ then you only have a 27% chance of winning this hand.

You're all-in raise screams bluff to me, and you are giving me nearly 2:1 on the call.


[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the response. My thought process was the following:

1.) If he were on AJ, he would bet the flop to protect his hand. I would want to protect my J here in his shoes as a K or Q falling means trouble, and I would expect a reasonable player to do the same.

2.) His T200 bet into a T400 pot says weakness to me unless I have a read to the contrary. I think this weakness generally means folding to a decent sized all-in raise.

I appreciate your response as I had not thought that my play screamed "bluff", but am interested in why/how it did. I think I see what you are saying as the board is so uncoordinated that my play probably looks like exactly what it was (flush draw), but I still think he should have a hard time calling if he is weak as I suspect(as he should have protected a strong hand by betting out on the flop).

[Bigwig]

I don't like the size of your preflop raise. I would have made it at least 250, maybe 300.

Anyway, after the flop, I would've bet. I realize that any pot sized bet at this point makes you pot committed, so I may have tried a feeler bet for less. Something like the 200 he put out on the turn.

Anyway, on the turn, I smell that he has a set. I'm probably wrong in many people's eyes, but I would call and see the river.

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't like the size of your preflop raise. I would have made it at least 250, maybe 300.

Anyway, after the flop, I would've bet. I realize that any pot sized bet at this point makes you pot committed, so I may have tried a feeler bet for less. Something like the 200 he put out on the turn.

Anyway, on the turn, I smell that he has a set. I'm probably wrong in many people's eyes, but I would call and see the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the thoughts. Generally I'm opposed to 1/2 pot sized "feeler" bets as they invite too much trouble IMO. A feeler of T200 by me into this pot encourages a call from a draw hand (any draw hand including AK, KQ, etc.). I also think a feeler bet shows weakness that is taken advantage of at this tourney level (i.e. I think my feeler is likely to get reraised as it looks/is weak and I'd have to lay to the RR).

A call of his T200 bet is a possibility that I hadn't worked through, but, assuming I have 15 outs (including my A & Q), I do have the proper pot odds to make a call on his turn bet. I think that is probably the right line given my outs- call his turn bet and fold the river if I miss.

[poboys]

[ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the response. My thought process was the following:

1.) If he were on AJ, he would bet the flop to protect his hand. I would want to protect my J here in his shoes as a K or Q falling means trouble, and I would expect a reasonable player to do the same.


[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I shouldda thoughta dat.

[ QUOTE ]

2.) His T200 bet into a T400 pot says weakness to me unless I have a read to the contrary. I think this weakness generally means folding to a decent sized all-in raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

I guess it depends the player. Where I play ($30), 1/2 pot bets are pretty common, but then again it does seem pretty fishy. Obviously a read here'd be great.

[ QUOTE ]

I appreciate your response as I had not thought that my play screamed "bluff", but am interested in why/how it did. I think I see what you are saying as the board is so uncoordinated that my play probably looks like exactly what it was (flush draw), but I still think he should have a hard time calling if he is weak as I suspect(as he should have protected a strong hand by betting out on the flop).

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that he'd have a tough time calling the all-in. It's more of a play on weakness than a semi-bluff (since you have terrible odds of hitting the last club).

To me, a min-bet into the turn means either A-high, small piece or a set (that he's hoping to get more action from). Anyway, sounds like you had a good read on him and smelled his weakness.