UGLY 30/60 bellagio hand

[bicyclekick]

Great Belagio 30/60 game at about 5 or 6am. not so good asian guy who's short stacked limps utg(this doesn't mean much of anything.)

super lag boarderline maniac gambler guy raises in mlp. He'd raise pretty much any 2. Last hand he raised Q9o was utg.

I 3 bet K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in CO-1 and a decent asian guy on the button makes it 4 bets (doh!) blinds fold utg calls, mp says "I know you're just going to cap it so I will for you" (I've been showing down good cards so far and playing well.)

Flop comes K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]t[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

checked to mp who bets, I raise, button 3 bets, utg c/r all in 4 bets, mp folds. Hero ?

Does hero call the 2 more bets essentually chasing another K or Q that may or may not be good, along with the backdoor flush? It's likely the button will cap, too. So you really have to think about 3 more bets.

[Nate tha' Great]

Heads up against the Button you have:

9% equity against TT (3 combos)
7.5% equity against KK (1 combo)
13% equity against A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K (2 combos)
18% equity against AxK (6 combos)
19% equity against A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A (3 combos)
23% equity against AxA (3 combos)
48% equity against A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (1 combo)

For a weighted average of about 17% equity.

I'm assuming that you commit yourself to calling the turn when you call the flop. If that's the case you're getting an effective 5:33.5 on the flop + turn call, which means that you need about 13% equity to call. HOWEVER the damned all-in player complicates things since it's likely that

a) He holds some of your outs,
and/or
b) He holds a redraw against your redraw

Arbitrarily I'm guessing that it's appropriate to knock about 25% of your win percentage as a result of UTG's presence, which knocks you down to 12.75%.

In other words, this is a seemingly momentus decision in a $1000+ pot that realistically comes down to the price of a cocktail or so in terms of expectation. Quite honestly it depends on whether you feel like gambling or not. It doesn't matter very much what you do.

[Garland]

I'd take a cold hard look at the pot and ask myself one question before you consider folding:

"Do I like money?"

By my count, there's 31.5 small bets in the pot and they are asking you to pay 2 bets for 31.5:2 (and maybe implied 3 for 32.5:3 if you assume button will cap) with top pair, good kicker with backdoors to not only a flush, but a straight as well!

If the pot swells to this point, I'd say fine, let button take control, but call him down. But don't you dare let your cards hit the muck until button shows you a winning hand at the showdown.

Garland

[Senor Choppy]

[ QUOTE ]
Quite honestly it depends on whether you feel like gambling or not. It doesn't matter very much what you do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming your numbers are correct, that's true if those are the only potential hands. If you think the button is capable of raising the flop with QQ or JJ here, a fold could be disastrous.

With over 10-1 odds even assuming a cap from the button, this isn't the time to make a good laydown. I think seeing the turn is imperative, even if you plan on folding without improvement.

[Nate tha' Great]

Because I'm a dork, I decided to look in a little bit more detail at the way that UTG's presence impacts Hero's decision.

Case 1: Assume that Button will only have played his hand this way with the hands that hands I described in my initial post: TT, KK, AK, AA, AhQh.

Hero has 18% equity against this combination of hands heads up against the Button.

If UTG has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] X [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], then Hero's equity is reduced to 8%.

If UTG has K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Hero's equity is 14%.

If UTG has A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Hero's equity is 17%.

If UTG has 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], it is 13%.

If UTG has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7.1%.

If UTG has flopped a set, 6.9%.

If UTG has total crap like 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Hero's equity remains at roughly 18%.

Let's assign a single weighting to all of the combinations except the last one (UTG has junk), which we'll assign a triple weighting to.

Against that parlay of UTG/Button hands, Hero's equity is 13.2%. Let's assume furthermore that:

1) Button will always cap the flop and bet the turn.
2) Hero will always call the turn.
3a) Hero will only play the river if he improves.
3b) Hero will make an average of one extra BB on the river if he hits his hand (so he's getting an effective 5:35.5).
4) Rake + tip costs the Hero $5.

Throw all this stuff into an EXCEL spreadsheet, and the flop call makes the Hero $10. It's that close.

Case 2: Assume that the Button will *occasionally* overplay a hand like QQ. To be more precise about it, we will assign 1.5 combinations of QQ to the Button. Note that Hero is now obligated to call the river, so he's now paying an effective 7:35.5 for his calldown.

Hero's equity heads up against Button now increases to 23.7%. UTG's presence reduces it to 18.5%, using the same assumptions as before.

In this case, Hero makes $25 by calling down.

However, if Button would *never* play QQ/JJ this way *and* Hero is committed to calling down the river, this is a bad parlay for Hero and costs him $42.

To summarize ...
1) Hero only calls river if he improves. Makes $10 on average.
2) Hero always bets/calls river, Button sometimes overplays hand. Hero makes $25.
3) Hero always bets/calls river, Button never overplays hand. Hero loses $42.

As I've said already, it's an extraordinarily close decision, but it does seem that Hero probably ought to pay the price on flop and turn and then faces another tough decision on the River if he hasn't improved.

[mplspoker]

Backdoor straight and backdoor flush. Have to see turn. No question in my opinion. Unless you get a draw or two pair on fourth street can't call more than 1 bet. My opinion....

[afish]

Preflop: I'd fold. Three betting with KQ in an aggressive game is a recipe for disaster. If you were confident you could get it heads up with the maniac, it might be ok. But you already have an early limper, so that isn't likely. I also think that you have to consider folding to the five-bet. The risk of being dominated here is huge.

Flop: Call the four bet and hope for improvement on the turn. I think it is a close decision, and my rule is to call when you have a close decision in a big pot. Note that the fact that you have a close decision when you got an almost perfect flop for your hand shows the merit of folding preflop.

[OrangeHeat]

I'm not too fond of the preflop action - I prefer to go after maniacs with a little stronger hand.

Flop is simple - BIG POT, I have some chance of winning it, I call down.

Orange

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not too fond of the preflop action - I prefer to go after maniacs with a little stronger hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

With a stronger hand, you can start to go after the normal players. KQ is plenty to go after a maniac IMO. Sometimes you'll see them 3 bet w/ 10-6, K-3, J-4 etc. And most maniacs are very adept at spewing chips postflop when they have almost no chance of winning.

[OrangeHeat]

[ QUOTE ]
With a stronger hand, you can start to go after the normal players. KQ is plenty to go after a maniac IMO. Sometimes you'll see them 3 bet w/ 10-6, K-3, J-4 etc. And most maniacs are very adept at spewing chips postflop when they have almost no chance of winning.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is already action before the maniac from early position - this changes things greatly.....

Orange