Flopped a set, but wait now theres a three flush.

[bunky9590]

This hand has been bugging me all day (and all last night).

Full Tilt Poker 2/4 NLHE.
7 handed. Relevent stacks are villain in the SB with 660.
Bunky is CO with 480. Paul Wolfe is on my immediate right.

Preflop: Folded to Paul wolfe who raises to 12. Bunky cold calls with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Loose SB calls, BB calls (no read).

Flop (48.00)
A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Checked all the way to Bunky. Bunky bets $40.00, only the SB calls.

Turn: ($128.00) 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Sb bets $30.00 into me. Bunky calls.

River ($188.00) 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB bets $100.00, Bunky thinks an almost times out and finally calls.

Thoughts?? Comments??
Need help on this one.

[tewall]

Makes sense to me.

When the third flush card comes, you're happy to show your hand down if it doesn't cost too much. On the river, you can call his bet, as you're getting better than 2 to 1.

I don't see how you can raise unless you have a read on him. The way he played it, it certainly seems possible he has a flush. He could have called the flop to hit the flush, and then made a small bet on the turn because he was afraid of losing you. On the river he bet as much as he though you might call.

It's also possible he has a worse hand than yours, but if you raise you might not get called enough to make up for the times you get raised.

I'm assuming the deep thought was because you were thinking of raising.

[gomberg]

wow - tough hand. I would call the turn probably if he is predictable (just for the pot / implied odds). On the river, make a read and go with it. If he's loose like you say, he probably could have the flush, so a fold wouldn't be too terrible. Call a "game-theoretically" good amount of the time [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

It is possible you could raise here and hope he has two pair (A2, etc.), but I'm not sure it's worth it - gotta run.

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
wow - tough hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Now I feel a little better. I thought the hand was tough as well. But, others may differ.

[ QUOTE ]
It is possible you could raise here and hope he has two pair (A2, etc.), but I'm not sure it's worth it

[/ QUOTE ]

I didnt consider the raise on the river. I was pondering the call.

If he has 2 pair, I doubt a raise gets more out of him. If he has the flush I likely get reraised if the flush is the nuts. So I think its clearly call or fold on the river.

[RiverDancer]

Why not raise the turn to see where you're at? Villian bets $30 into you, why not make it $60 to go as if you turned the flush? If Villian pushes you can get away cheap, if Villian calls then he'll probably check it to you on the river and you can play it how you want. Just a thought.

Dave

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
If Villian pushes you can get away cheap,

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would I want to get away at all, calling the $30.00 bet allows me to possibly draw out on him if he does have the flush. He just gave me a cheap ticket to the river. I'm gonna take it.

[creedofhubris]

Flop: strong bet. Someone's probably got an ace or diamonds.

Turn: call is really the only choice, isn't it?. You definitely want a cheap chance to draw out if you're behind.

River: depends on your read of the player. Some bad players will only make a bet $50 or above if they have the nuts or close to it. I think I call here though. If the bet is bigger I fold, but getting 3:1 it's worth it.

[gomberg]

Yeah - I would probably never raise there - don't really know why I typed it in. I'd still probably call though once in a while... for sure seems like a "milk-me" bet though. He messed up the turn royally if he had the flush, especially if he would have paid you off if the board paired.

The turn bet could sometimes be a semi-bluff from one diamond with an A or something, then a follow through on the river - but this doesn't happen enough to worry about too much.

[bunky9590]

Villain flips over the turned nutter butter nuts with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Yes, he called a raise from the SB with that hand.

Oh well. I think the call on the river was close. He did bet way too little on the turn with the nuts. If he knew what I had he surely would have bet more.

[Equal]

I think I would have raised the turn to $75 and see what he does. I think its cheaper this way to find out if he has the flush, than just calling down on turn and river.