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#1
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Can someone explain how to calculate the probability of the following events?
Let's say there are 10 people and they are going to draw a card number 1 to 10. 1 wins, 2 comes in second, 3 third on so on. Being that there is no skill involved I think it is correct to say that all players have a 1 in 10 chance or 10% chance of winning. (Or finishing in any specific spot) right? If the same players where to repeat the same game would the odds of the same player winning be 1 in 100 or 1%? (10 * 10) If the second time there were 20 players and 20 cards would the odds of the first player winning again 1 in 200 or .5%? If there is a third or forth game do you just keep multiplying? Thanks |
#2
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You have to be very careful how you phrase questions like this.
If the same game were played a second time the person who won the first game would have a 10% chance of winning because his first win is already a given. Even if you asked "What are the odds that one player wins twice in a row" the answer would STILL be 10% because someone must win the first game. To get the 1% you're looking for you must ask "starting now, what are the odds player 1 wins the next two games?" If there were 20 cards and 20 people playing, your odds on each game is 1/20 and yes, you keep multiplying that number by itself to determine streaks. So game two you'd win 1/400 times. |
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