Another KTs

[Piiop]

Partee Poker 10/20 Full 10.

I have K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Preflop: UTG limps, fold, I limp, fold, MP2 limps, fold, CO raises, fold, SB folds, BB calls, all call.

UTG is a classic calling station, more passive than most.
MP2 is pretty loose, rarely raises preflop, but is aggressive postflop. He does a lot of betting into the PFR when he's paired and betting when he improves.
CO is a maniac, but not super maniacal. He will bet every street unimproved after he raises preflop regardless, but most of his actions against other aggression have been genuwine. As in, he hasn't been autoraising flop bets after he raises preflop and when the board completes a gutshot and he raises he has had it. Earlier he raised Q3s UTG+1.
BB is a LAGgy preflop and not very aggressive postflop. He seems pretty bad, but I don't have that strong a read on him.

Flop (10sb): T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB checks, UTG checks, I check, MP2 bets, CO calls, BB calls, UTG folds, I call.

Does anyone want to bet the flop here? I have the best hand here a lot of the time and want to avoid any A, Q, or J. However, the CO hasn't been raising a lot of flop bets with nothing and it's likely the loose players will be calling the flop with a lot of stuff given the str8 and overcards possibilites.

Turn (7 BB): A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB checks, I check, MP2 bets, CO calls, BB calls, I call.

So, the A is kind of a scare card, but I still think I'm going to have the best hand here a lot. Would anyone bet out here? Since the CO and BB just check/called I'm not too worried about them and I think the MP2 would bet the turn with anything he had bet the flop with. He's also aware that CO is a maniac.

River (11BB): A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks, I bet...

So, I'm still very sure I have the best hand here, the 2nd A is a good card for me. I put MP2 on T with 8 or better kicker, any 9 with 7 or better, 99, 55, maaaybe 98/QJ/J8 straight draw. The maniac could have anything and I don't really care - since he hasn't raised any postflop I'm not worried. The BB could have a number of straight draws, or T's and 9's. I want to get value and make sure it's not checked thru, so I bet. If I think MP2 will bet enough % of the time, should I go for a checkraise here?

How's my play and analysis?

[Nick C]

Given the tendencies of the players to your left, it sounds like you can't really protect your hand and value-betting is kind of taken care of for you.

You can make a value-checkraise though, and I guess one question is what the correct timing would be for that. I'm thinking a safe turn might be the best spot. For me I don't know that the ace that fell would qualify as "safe," but I agree that it is a good sign that no one woke up on that card, and if you're confident enough about being ahead, that could be a spot for a checkraise.

After check-calling the turn, checkraising the river does seem like an option, but if MP2 just has something like J9, you'd think he'd be getting worried by this point about all the calls he's been getting, and the same could be true for a hand like QT. So, the possibility of a check-through does seem like a legitimate fear.

Plus, I'd probably be feeling antsy after all the checking and calling I'd been doing and would be eager to put a bet in myself whether doing so was best or not.

Anyway, the river seems fine to me. I think there is the question of whether or not you should checkraise at some earlier point. And I'm uncertain of the answer.

It seems like the pot is large enough (13 sb) after the CO bets and gets two calls on the flop that you can go for a value raise here. I just don't see enough cards that can come out that makes check raising the turn as powerful a play. What card do you want here to make you happy? 6s through 8s are dangerous with so many players in, you're not crazy about overcards and you don't want the board to pair. Waiting on the checkraise until the turn when 3/4 of the deck makes a checkraise dangerous seems flawed.

As played your turn and river actions are fine. Unless you have a strong read that someone will bet the river when you check, your value bet is necessary.