QT is loser after 13000 hands

therockofgibraltar · #1 11-26-2005, 05:06 AM

so how bad do I play them??

loose and passive table.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG folds.

River: (9 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 9 BB

imported_leader · #2 11-26-2005, 05:09 AM

I'm betting the river too. 13K hands isn't enough to have any grasp on individual hand win rates. I think we're talking hundreds of thousand of hands before you'd be able to get a firm number on individual hands. Especially ones that are close EV wise

Weatherhead03 · #3 11-26-2005, 05:10 AM

Fine. Im sure after 13000 hands you do not have enough individual QT hands to evaluate yet.

bottomset · #4 11-26-2005, 05:13 AM

you only get about 3QTs per 1000 hands so a sample in the 30-50 range is going to be all over the place

MasterShakes · #5 11-26-2005, 05:14 AM

Preflop looks fine to me.

The raise on the flop also looks fine to me, unless your stats/read indicates that this player will only bet with top pair. BB cold call will almost always make me lean toward a flush draw, even without a read on the player.

I think the turn bet is mandatory at this point. If you thought you were ahead on the flop, you should still believe this unless shown otherwise.

I would value bet the river. It's not a scary card - no pair on the board, no flush possible, no straight possible. If your hand was good on the flop and turn, it's likely still good here.

As an aside, 13,000 hands is not a very big sample at all to determine how an individual hand is doing. That is, unless you're trying to say that you've played QT 13,000 times, which I doubt. I'm not sure how many total hands you would want to have before making judgments about individual hands, but it's probably in excess of 500,000.

MrWookie47 · #6 11-26-2005, 05:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm betting the river too. 13K hands isn't enough to have any grasp on individual hand win rates. I think we're talking hundreds of thousand of hands before you'd be able to get a firm number on individual hands. Especially ones that are close EV wise

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed on all counts. If UTG was still in the hand, I'd like the river check. However, with just BB, this is a solid value bet.

MasterShakes · #7 11-26-2005, 05:17 AM

Do you all think he can fold the river if he is check-raised?

imported_leader · #8 11-26-2005, 05:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If UTG was still in the hand, I'd like the river check.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too.

imported_leader · #9 11-26-2005, 05:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you all think he can fold the river if he is check-raised?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think that happens very rarely. Without a read, I really wouldn't know what to do. I'd probably make a "WTF call."

Subfallen · #10 11-26-2005, 05:56 AM

13k is meaningless for individual hands. I am a significant loser with AQs over my last 30k hands.