Analysis of hand

#1 10-22-2005, 06:13 PM

This is my first attempt with bison's hand converter and my first post of a hand for analysis. Looking for some feedback. I appologize if this is in the wrong forum, and if so will someone kindly point me to the correct place to post posts such as this one?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter

BB (t1505)
UTG (t3130)
UTG+1 (t2225)
MP1 (t2610)
MP2 (t4155)
MP3 (t2385)
CO (t1380)
Hero (t1970)
SB (t1205)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t30, 1 fold, MP2 calls t30, MP3 calls t30, 1 fold, Hero raises to t120, 2 folds, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls t90, MP3 calls t90.

Flop: (t435) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 bets t30, MP3 calls t30, Hero raises to t180, MP2 calls t150, MP3 calls t150.

Turn: (t975) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 bets t30, MP3 calls t30, Hero raises to t120, MP2 calls t90, MP3 calls t90.

River: (t1335) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 bets t3735 (All-In), MP3 folds, Hero calls t1550 (All-In).

Final Pot: t6620

#2 10-22-2005, 06:29 PM

You're pre-flop raise is iffy with AJ. AJ is good, but it's not a powerhouse. I'd probably limp here, but your raise isn't terrible. You could raise to 150 hoping to take down the pot, but 120 is fine. Post flop you've got a good hand, but you've got a very draw heavy board with straight and flush possibilities. With a minraise and a caller, you should be re-raising it to about 500 on the flop. Your re-raise prices in both the straight and flush draws. It also might get a call from middle pair (which is good).

The turn isn't a terrible card for you (unless you think that someone is calling with middle pair. Again, all of the betting on the turn prices in draws. None of these come out on the river, so you're pretty safe. However, you do have to be worried about a hand like A9, 33, and KJ. I'd probably call the river, but this situation is so sticky because your flop and turn raises give you no information.

Will

#3 10-22-2005, 09:18 PM

Ya I figured with a bunch of limpers that a raise here preflop would be ok.

Since there doesnt seem to be any others that have an opinion, turns out that my biggest mistake was calling the all-in bet on the river. The monkey had Q 10 offsuit and was on a draw the whole time. Of course he hit on the river and my hand wasn't as strong anymore.

You are saying that betting more after the flop and turn would hopefully have forced him to fold? I'll try this next time I get into this situation.

Thanks for the comments.

#4 10-22-2005, 09:35 PM

I am not sure if I would have raised with AJ there, but you got pretty good results out of it by limiting the field to 2 others.

Usually when a player minbets it represents weakness, but occasionally it represents true strength.

Flop reraise looks fine there, but the turn reraise is wayyyyy to short. Its pretty obvious that MP3 is drawing right here, so I would raise to about 600 here. The lower bet on the turn is saying that you don't have the 9 and don't want to commit too many chips in case the first raiser has a 9. If you bet 600 and get reraised, you can safely fold and still have about 1300 chips.

On the river, villian saw a flush card didn't come, and saw you didn't raise as much last hand. He figured MP3 missed his draw, and figured if he goes all in, you won't call since you basically said you don't have the 9.

#5 10-22-2005, 09:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ya I figured with a bunch of limpers that a raise here preflop would be ok.

Since there doesnt seem to be any others that have an opinion, turns out that my biggest mistake was calling the all-in bet on the river. The monkey had Q 10 offsuit and was on a draw the whole time. Of course he hit on the river and my hand wasn't as strong anymore.

You are saying that betting more after the flop and turn would hopefully have forced him to fold? I'll try this next time I get into this situation.

Thanks for the comments.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, technically you were giving him outstanding odds the whole way. If you would have raised more on the turn, he might have given it up. You had to have known MP3 was on the flush draw, so make a bet that if he calls, it is not giving him good odds to make his hand, so he is the one making the mistake.

John Bedtelyon · #6 10-22-2005, 09:44 PM

Don't give draws good odds. If they don't have odds they'll lose in the long run and you'll win. In a tournament it's different since the long run doesn't help if you're knocked out.

Don't give them the odds they need to draw to a hand like a straight in a tournament, especially if you think you have the best hand. If you get sucked out, that's poker and you can always play the next tournament, but over the course of your lifetime, you'll go further in tournaments.

As a last note, in tournaments online like these, people will still draw to there hands even without proper odds, so you're bond to lose if there draw hits, it just happens. The call on the river is iffy as it knocked you out of the tournament with just a single pair (two pair actually) with a straight possiblity, one card trips, and an overcard.

Last side note, the guy had more than doubled up already and it's only the second lvl of the tournament which means he's very loose and probably wreckless. You simply got unlucky, that's poker, and better luck next time [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

JMB

Mathieu · #7 10-22-2005, 09:49 PM

Betting more after the flop would force your opponent to either CALL unprofitably or fold and give up his share of the pot. You raised so little that your opponent could call and make money. This is important. The goal is not to prevent your opponent from outdrawing you at all cost. It is to prevent him from doing so profitably.

It is important that you re-assess the situation as the hand develops.

On the flop, villains's min bet suggest that he either has a weak hand or he is trying to see the next card for cheap. So you want to raise him enough to make his call unprofitable.

On the turn when he bets the minimum into to you, he is again trying to see the river for cheap. He is hoping that the paired board will scare you from raising. Don't be scared, raise enough so that he won't get more than 3-1.

On the river when he moves all-in he is telling you that his draw made it. You are not getting good pot odds to call this, and his actions so far match what he is representing. So you can fold this confidently.

Focus on making good decisions, don't worry so much about the results. Good luck [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

#8 10-23-2005, 12:31 AM

So considering pot odds, I've read a bit about pot odds and such, but I'm still not sure if I fully understand this. Here goes with my interpretation:

In this particular instance after the flop, on an open ended straight draw, there are 30 cards remaining (9 handed = 18 cards, 1 burned, 3 flop). He needs 1 of 8 possible cards. That would give him approx. 1:4 odds on hitting his card. Correct? After the flop I raised to 180 meaning for him to see the next card, he'd have to pay 150 more into a pot of 620 (which is 1:4) meaning that he is getting good odds on making that call. Is that correct? If that is indeed correct, from what all are saying, reraising post flop to 600 would make him have to put in an addition 570 into a pot of 1110 which is approx. 1:2? I think I'm off here. Anyone have a second here to get me back on track?

Thanks

#9 10-23-2005, 12:40 AM

I pretty much agree with the others. AJo on the button is nice, but probably better to limp with the others. Both of your reraises should have been much more to force your villan off the draw. By the time he pushed all in after min betting you should have known you were nearly screwed and walked away.

#10 10-23-2005, 08:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So considering pot odds, I've read a bit about pot odds and such, but I'm still not sure if I fully understand this. Here goes with my interpretation:

In this particular instance after the flop, on an open ended straight draw, there are 30 cards remaining (9 handed = 18 cards, 1 burned, 3 flop). He needs 1 of 8 possible cards. That would give him approx. 1:4 odds on hitting his card. Correct? After the flop I raised to 180 meaning for him to see the next card, he'd have to pay 150 more into a pot of 620 (which is 1:4) meaning that he is getting good odds on making that call. Is that correct? If that is indeed correct, from what all are saying, reraising post flop to 600 would make him have to put in an addition 570 into a pot of 1110 which is approx. 1:2? I think I'm off here. Anyone have a second here to get me back on track?

Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to read up on pot odds, you are not understanding them fully. Never count cards you can't see (other peoples cards and burn cards). As it stood, he had 6 outs for his straight, and 3 outs for a queen which beats your pair, giving him 9 outs. Using a quick method to calculate your percentage there, you multiply your outs (9) by 2 and add 1, giving him a 19% chance of winning the hand (about a 1 in 5). If he counted the flush cards (which he probably wouldn't after seeing the other guy tag along also), it would give him 11, which is 23% (about 1 in 4).

You can raise a pot sized bet on the flop and squash the odds from most hands, but that is not even necessary. A raise of 400 on the flop will give any draws bad odds (he would have to call 370 into about a 1000 pot, less than 3:1), and on the turn, you can't be scared of the 9 falling there. If I sense weakness in an opponent when they bet one thing one round then bet lower the next, I am going to attack them right then and there because I know they are weak.

Here is a link for you to check out, hope it helps: Pot Odds