Crucial hand from EPT Dublin

[KSakuraba]

Half hour left of the day 1, ~45 players left, blinds 1000/2000, 200 ante. Hero has lost two coin flips against smaller stacks about an hour ago and is down to ~21k after posting bb.

Stacks involved:
Button ~50k
(Swedish youngster, had been pretty active during last few hours)
SB ~70k
(also swedish youngster,very solid, thinking player)


All folds to button, who makes it 5000. SB calls.

Hero looks down, sees KTs...and pushes.

Thoughts?

What's your image at this point? Are you involved in a lot of pots or have you been playing tight for a while? I think having an idea of your table image is very important here.

I'm not sure I'd put a squeeze on with that hand in this spot. The button only has to call another 16k for a pot of 33k so it's better than 2:1 odds. While this does leave him a large calling range, my bigger concern would be with the SB and what he's calling that PFR with. You said yourself he's a solid, thinking player. What is he calling a raise with OOP against a stack that can take him down? In addition, is this one of the few times you've seen him defending his blind or was he making this type of play against a lot of late position raises when he was in the blinds? I know the blinds are eating you up but I think you can find a better spot than this in the next few orbits.

[Exitonly]

Well if your stack was a bit bigger this would be absolutely a perfect spot for a squeeze. Aggro going for a steal, a guy that knows he's stealing, and then you making a bet neither can call.

Except, they both could call, your 20k isn't all that much, and they'd each be getting 2:1. Though stealing the pot would increase your stack 50%. but i dont think you fare to well against SB's range, but i'd have to do some pokerstove, ,and i'm tired.

so anyways, i think i'm folding there, but it's close.

[ansky451]

If you had 30k, I'd say push and it'd still be close.

With 20k, you have little to no fold equity. This would be "ok" with a hand that is better in showdown, like AJ, AQ, but I don't like KTs here against SBs calling range- which at this pt is basically any 2 cards (that he would have called the first raise with) if the button folds.

I like it. The caller in between makes all the difference. I even like it if you know he has AJ/AQ.

[KSakuraba]

Yeah im leaning more and more towards fold in that point, at the moment i felt like my 21k would be enough to have some folding equity, especially since i had been folding for like last three orbits and had very tigh image, but hell...it seems my math abilities aren't at their best after 11,5 hours of poker with no food...=)

And congratulations for your 14th place, not bad for a first big tournament! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Exitonly]

heh thanks . [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

and the no food thing was ridiculous. No dinner break, and it took them forever to bring food to anyone that ordered it. i didnt even bother asking, but i ws starving.

what'd you look like? curious if i saw you there.

[KSakuraba]

I had pretty long redbrownish hair,wore a blue hoody while playing. I think i played in a table next to yours in the basement for the first 8 hours...if there werent multiple green-haired guys... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
I'd be really surprised if they EVER had the EPT Dublin there again...that was by far the worst casino/poker club i've ever seen.

[2Fast2Furious]

I think you either push or call here and am wondering why you think it's a fold. I know that you're short stacked here with ~21,000 but it's only 3000 more to call with 10,000 in the pot offering you more than 3-1. You're next hand after SB is probably an all-in anyway and KTs ain't all that bad (although certainly not a premium hand.

Is the general consensus that a call and missed flop just leads you too short stacked with no fold equity? To me if they're gonna call 17,000 they were probably gonna call 21,000 later on anyway.

[gobboboy]

I think a stop and go has a lot more fold equity in this spot. KTs isn't an awful hand to play here, and if the flop comes rags (or hopefully K or T high) then you can get some much needed chips.