Odds on gigabet

shaniac · #1 08-03-2005, 06:05 PM

I respect Gigabet's MTT game and unique level of dedication and stamina as much as the next guy, but I don't think he's anywhere near a 2-1 favorite to win the Augugst TLB.

I seriously doubt it's possible, even for the best Pokerstars MTT player, to be any kind of substantial 'favorite' to win such a prop bet, especially since the structure of the TLB doesn't give that big an edge to volume-players and since other talented and capable players (some more experienced in TLB-whoring) are going to put in an effort to block gigabet this month.

Can anyone with a better grasp of expectation and probability give some idea of gigabet's actual chances of winning this bet?

ClaytonN · #2 08-03-2005, 06:34 PM

The probability has to be factored on the weighting of finish distribution and buyin amount.

For instance, if the TLB is topheavy in its max points distribution, then Giga is less of a favorite. At the moment he is playing easily 5-6 tournaments at a time for a substantial portion of the day, so the less topheavy the system is the bigger a favorite he is.

I say that only on the basis that I don't think guys like Sheets and gank are playing that much, but I could be wrong. I'm well aware of the fact that Giga goes for the win.

DrunkIrish05 · #3 08-03-2005, 06:39 PM

I find this whole thing really interesting, and I've checked both giga and gank's tables a decent amount of times the last few days and gank seems to be playing just as much as giga so far. Also, didn't giga say that he had alot to do the first half of the month and would do the bulk of his playing the last 2 weeks? This has to be factored in too.

colson10 · #4 08-03-2005, 06:47 PM

I think normally, if no one knew about the bet, he would be around even money, maybe a small favorite if he was putting in serious work. With the bet being public, and nip/tuck putting the 5K bounty on it, and not to mention the prestige of winning it with everyone watching, I think he's a dog. I'd put him at around 3:1 I think.

colson10

TomHimself · #5 08-03-2005, 06:51 PM

Yea giga is in Europe and said in a room that he wasnt playing his hardest but playing his A game. nip/tuck said something about he is flying to hawaii to get a extra 1/2 a day or something which confuses me, something with time zones i guess

TheTimeIsUp · #6 08-03-2005, 06:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think normally, if no one knew about the bet, he would be around even money, maybe a small favorite if he was putting in serious work. With the bet being public, and nip/tuck putting the 5K bounty on it, and not to mention the prestige of winning it with everyone watching, I think he's a dog. I'd put him at around 3:1 I think.

colson10

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you say he's the individual favorite though?

colson10 · #7 08-03-2005, 07:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think normally, if no one knew about the bet, he would be around even money, maybe a small favorite if he was putting in serious work. With the bet being public, and nip/tuck putting the 5K bounty on it, and not to mention the prestige of winning it with everyone watching, I think he's a dog. I'd put him at around 3:1 I think.

colson10

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you say he's the individual favorite though?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's definitely him or gank. They're both very capable of playing many tables well, and they're both great players. I haven't played too much with Gig (at least that I'm aware of), but I think it would be tough for him to be better than gank in online MTT's. From what I've read and heard, it sounds like Gig might be a better overall player than gank (I obviously don't really know), but when talking about online MTT's it's hard to believe he's better.

colson10

TheTimeIsUp · #8 08-03-2005, 07:16 PM

Couldn't say it better myself. Gank seems more determined than ever before to prove he is the 'best online MTTer'. Giga also has little to no MTT cred.

ClaytonN · #9 08-03-2005, 07:19 PM

Gank and Giga will both play a crapload of tournaments, but all in all it boils down to who catches a streak of big MTT scores.

I would easily put Giga and Gank and Sheets "up there", but Giga's odds have to be somewhere around 2:1, maybe even as high as 4:1.

I just made a bet against Giga at even money, so I'm pleased. I think anyone else would make the bet, too.

Roman · #10 08-03-2005, 07:21 PM

While it may be true that gigabet has little to no MTT "cred", who cares? He knows what he is doing, and would not take this bet unless he was sure it was +EV. His play is respected and feared for a reason.