Red Jacks on a four flush board, turn decision

Malcom Reynolds · #1 12-20-2004, 05:30 PM

Bay 101, 8/16 on Saturday Night.

The game is quite loose but there is a lot of post-flop aggression, mostly from the guy to my left who wasn't in the hand. I've been sitting here for about 1.5 hours now.

LP is beginning to show signs of tilting/steaming after losing a few pots and in a previous hand, folded a set to one bet on the flop after a capped preflop. I think his play is becoming erratic as a result and a bit harder to read.

Button is unremarkable. He has a huge pile of chips and plays very tightly, and I haven't seen him in enough hands to have much of a read on him.

BB is a tight, aggressive player, who I think is a much better player than me. I've seen him c/r for value, c/r to protect, raise for value, bet, and he seems to call down or fold in the right spots too. I haven't seen him in too many pots and don't get to see his hole cards that often so my read could be wrong, but this was my impression at the time.

I am UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I raise. LP calls, button calls and BB calls. Four to the flop for 8.5 SB.

Flop is K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. BB checks, I bet, LP calls, button folds, BB calls.

Three to the turn for 5.75 minus rake.

Turn is T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. BB bets. Hero...?

Derek in NYC · #2 12-20-2004, 05:41 PM

Bets and folds to a raise. The pot is shorthanded, so your third nut flush might be good. The four hearts are going to be scary to everybody except for the guy holding the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. If called, plan to check call fourth street.

Malcom Reynolds · #3 12-20-2004, 05:54 PM

BB already bet into me.

Nick C · #4 12-20-2004, 06:09 PM

Tough spot. Maybe folding is best, but I think I'd call down, in part because I'm worried BB is making a play (he's seen me playing tight, and he knows LP just folded a set on the flop to one bet, after all). I don't think a smaller flush is terribly likely, but I suppose something like 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is possible.

I'm kind of expecting BB to show me the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], though. And I'm a little worried LP will raise behind me with something like the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. (I'm not planning to hang around if there's any more action on the turn. I guess maybe I will if the erratic LP raises and BB folds, but I'm not going to like the spot I've gotten myself into in that case.)

Derek in NYC · #5 12-20-2004, 06:31 PM

Sorry Im a tard. I could really see you playing it lots of ways. It wouldn't be wrong to fold, particularly since your bet won't close the action, and the tilting guy behind you was willing to call on a monotone flop (so he could well have a draw to the nuts or second nuts). On the other hand, I could see the argument for raising, if you thought the TAG was trying to put a play on you with top pair, or two pair or something. If he had the nuts would he bet it, or would he check to your demonstrated preflop and flop aggression? And if he has the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], he'll call then check to you on 5th street, where you will check behind. If you get 3 bet (by either the tilty guy or the TAG), you can happily fold, and know that you spent the same number of bets as you would have check-calling the TAG. Because of this last fact, I am marginally inclined to call this a raise-or-fold situation.

private joker · #6 12-20-2004, 06:43 PM

What do people think about raising this and folding to a 3-bet on the turn? BB won't 3-bet without the A or Q. Any lower heart and he'll call the raise and check-call the river. You gain more BB when you're ahead, and save one when you're behind by folding.

EDIT: I just saw that Derek recommended the same. Apologies for crossing the post...

MoreWineII · #7 12-20-2004, 06:51 PM

Hrm, would it be far off to say that the TAG BB would likely have check-raised the flop (or the turn) holding the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]?

In any case, I like the raise / fold to a 3-bet line.

Grease · #8 12-20-2004, 06:58 PM

I can't see the TAG leading into you with the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], as you have been the aggressor the entire hand. He'd c/r. I would raise and fold to a 3-bet (as others have suggested). I think folding here would be wrong.

Nick C · #9 12-20-2004, 07:14 PM

Since raise-fold seems to be the growing consensus, I'm beginning to suspect it's the best play. One thing I'm wondering, though, is if that line will drive out hands we'd like to keep in. Two pair from BB seems unlikely to me, and I think he might fold a worse flush. (Then again, I'm not sure he'd fire again with a worse flush on the river anyway.) If he has a set, he won't fold, and we can at least get out if LP 3-bets and then let BB and LP fight it out. (But couldn't we get out anyway, and more cheaply, if LP raised and BB called? I guess then we'd have to be a little concerned that LP was raising a worse flush.)

I do see that if BB has a set, our raise will get an extra bet out of him while he's drawing. And maybe he will stay in with a worse flush. It just does seem to me that there are potential disadvantages to raising.

Malcom Reynolds · #10 12-20-2004, 07:47 PM

Would the TAG really try for a c/r on the turn with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? He has to be concerned that this could get checked through if we don't have hearts or have small ones right?

And we might fold to the c/r anyway, gaining nothing over betting.