Laying down a set

[Ghazban]

Party 1/2, I have $200, villain has me covered. Villain is a regular in the game who is slightly over breakeven after about 500 hands. He's fairly tight preflop and I don't recall ever seeing him making any tricky moves. I have 33 on the button.

Villain opens for $8 in MP, someone calls, I call.

Flop comes AJ3r

Checked to me, I bet $20, villain is the only caller

Turn is a 2, completing the rainbow

Check, check

River is a 9, he bets $50, I fold.


I expect to get berated for this but those who are inclined to flame ought to think about what hands an unimaginative, straightforward villain plays this way. I thought of two and they both beat me.

[jkkkk]

I'm not going to flame, but this is seriously weak. Why can't he have AK?

[djoyce003]

no chance he has AK here? If he hasn't tried anything tricky, why would he check a flopped AAA or JJJ twice. The only hand I can see him checking twice here is AAA...no way he checks JJJ twice. It seems like an AK worried about someone with AJ to me. I'm not sure I raise here, but I think I call this, I can't fold a set unless the board is really unfriendly. If he has AAA or JJJ or 999 then I'll pay it off.

[ryanghall]

Ghazban, come on.

You simply can't lay this down. What is his VPIP? Could he not have AQ here? He could certainly have AK.

Who is the player in question? I have a lot of hands at 200NL logged.

Is this not worth at least a call on the end (and probably a raise?)

I would personally make a big bet on the turn here.

[Jocke_F]

I am not gonna berate it, but I would never fold this river for 50$, you are getting 2 to 1 for your call, and I dont think you are beat more then 50% of the times, why couldn't he play AK or AJ like this, checking a non scary board to you, and then check the turn again going for the check raise?

[Maulik]

the villian didn't go allin. its only $50 into a $51 pot?

All you have to do is call and complete the hand, I understand if he goes allin or comes over the top of you, however he's allowing you to make the last decision by betting the pot. PAY HIM OFF HERE.

[jkkkk]

I really think Ghazban posts threads like these for a joke every now and then, weird sense of humour.

[PokerCat69]

[ QUOTE ]
I really think Ghazban posts threads like these for a joke every now and then, weird sense of humour.

[/ QUOTE ]
Has to be.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to flame, but this is seriously weak. Why can't he have AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe he leads this flop with AK close to 100% of the time. I also believe he'd check/call or blocking bet the river rather than leading out for so much.

[Go_Blue88]

i think that you need to bet the turn here. by the time you get to the river, i have no idea what villian holds. before i try to figure it out, i'm wondering, does villian generally bet the majority of flops after raising? or does he bet the ones he hits? what have you noticed him do after raising p/f?