Steal Attempt Gone Bad

[AACardPlayer]

Hand I played last night in a Party $30+3 3-Table Tournament.

Remaining players: 17
Blinds: 50-100
Hero's stack- 2100

Button (hero) dealt 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG+1 call
MP call
Button (Hero) raise to 500
SB (villain) all-in for 1100
BB fold
UTG+1 fold
MP fold
Hero ?

Got to call 600 to win 1900. 1-3.16 odds

Insta-call right? Well, if it wasn't for the fact that villain had been playing tight and that he pushed here knowing almost certainly that he was going to get called.

So range of hand I put villain on is A-K, A-Q, and AA-88. That's all the hands I see him pushing with, and even 88 and 99 might be out of the question.

That's 32 combinations of unpaired holdings and 42 combinations of pairs.

Here's the math, somewhat rounded:

32 combos of unpaired cards /74=

.43x .41 (avg. probability of winning) x3500 (chips I have if I win) = 617

.43x .59(avg. probability of losing) x1000 (chips I have if I lose)= 254

42 combos of pairs/74=

.57x .21 x3500 = 419

.57x .79 x1000 = 450

617+254+419+450= 1740

Calling 1740
Folding 1600

+EV of 140 right?

I thought about it for a second or two, but the pots-odds were just too big so at the time it felt like a call was the right play..

Villain turned over JJ and I rivered a straight [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]. But whatever, that's besides the point.



I'd like some comments on the play and whether or not my calculations are correct...Thanks

Andy

[zambonidrivr]

i saw that hand and laughed my ass off. i ended up winning the tournament. my name was nicelay.

[AACardPlayer]

No, I don't think so. I actually ended up winning that tournament (got lucky a few more times). You must be mistaking me for someone else.

[DDBeast]

Getting over 3-1 I think you can call w/ almost anything and a suited connector does fine.