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Old 08-23-2005, 12:13 PM
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Default Statistical Problem

I was wondering if Ribbo, or any other mathemagician can help me out with this because I keep screwing up big hands, or big opportunities with this play....

Can someone tell me the odds of being busted when I have top trips on the board, but at the same time there is a straight draw going on....and at the same time what are the odds of getting busted with a flush draw on the board.

With a straight draw, and two cards to come, there are 8 cards that will make me miserable, with a flush draw there are 9 cards. But, should one of those cards come on the turn, I still have 9 cards to save me to make a house or quads...once the turn hits, I know how to figure out where I'm at in the hand, but after the flop the math escapes me a bit to figure out the successive probabilities for the upcoming two hands.

I can't tell you how many times I just screw up that situation, either I'm betting too hard, or sometimes, I'm hesitant to bet because I'm ready to get busted. I'm rarely on the right side of things. If I had a better grasp of the odds, I know that my play will adjust to that successfully.

Thanks for your help!!!

the Hun.
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