Bullets first hand

[juanez]

Let me begin with a disclaimer: I am not one of the "on line poker is fixed!" crowd, so please don't flame the sh!t out of me for posting this. This isn't a whine post either; I'm just curious what you tourney folks have seen.

I truly believe that on-line poker isn't fixed. I'm not a programmer, don't know anyone working at any poker web site and I'm up significantly this year after studying 2+2 books and posts really hard. Why would the powers that be favor me? They don't.

Anyway, I've been playing lots of $10 1-table sit-n-go's on UB the last week or so. 90% of the time I'm playing 1/2 or 2/4 on Party so the UB tourneys are not my usual gig.

On the UB tourneys there always seems to be "one of those guys" who goes all in on the first hand of the tourney. It also seems that there is one who gets AA on the first hand really often. On Friday night I started keeping track.

From Friday evening until now, I've played 28 $10 sng's (and counting - not much going on this weekend...lol) and I've done pretty well. 17 of those tourneys had a player with AA in the hole on the very first hand that I've seen. I assume that everyone who had AA on the first hand called any bet. If not, the #'s are even higher.

In the tourney I'm playing in right now, me and one other guy got AA on the first hand of the tourney and split the pot after we both went all in after a raggedy flop (I was one of those guys this time - lol). After that, I decided to post my results here.

Is seeing AA on the first hand this often simply an oddity, is it normal? Can you math geniuses show that it's statistically, ummm, reasonable?

[SmileyEH]

Anything is reasonable given enough iterations. Think the infinite monkey theorem: take a monkey and give him an infinite time to type away at a keyboard. Eventually he will type without error the entire works of William Shakespeare.

Also, think of an infinite number of monkeys typing at the rate of 1 letter per second. One monkey will type the complete works of William Shakespeare on the first try.

In other words, it is not a statistical oddity.

-SmileyEH

[pshreck]

This sounds like selective remembering. Do you have some spreadsheet or something showing these results? Or were you just keeping track in your head?

About your results.... are you saying that not only did somebody have AA on the first hand 17x out of 28, but that those were just the times they showed their cards? I don't understand how every single time they got it all in/and or showed their cards. I have had AA on the first hand before, and sometimes everyone folds to my bet. Not sure how you could 'know' every time.

[betgo]

The chance of AA is 1/221. So the chance someone has AA the first hand is about 1/22.

[Vanquish]

[ QUOTE ]
The chance of AA is 1/221. So the chance someone has AA the first hand is about 1/22.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a big negative. Saying that any given starting hand happens 1 out of 22 times means that there are only 22 possible starting hands. That isn't right at all.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The chance of AA is 1/221. So the chance someone has AA the first hand is about 1/22.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a big negative. Saying that any given starting hand happens 1 out of 22 times means that there are only 22 possible starting hands. That isn't right at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's accounting for the fact that there's more than one player at the table.

eastbay

[Marcotte]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The chance of AA is 1/221. So the chance someone has AA the first hand is about 1/22.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a big negative. Saying that any given starting hand happens 1 out of 22 times means that there are only 22 possible starting hands. That isn't right at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's accounting for the fact that there's more than one player at the table.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he is, but the math is still incorrect.

The chance of being dealt AA on any given hand is 1/221 (4/52 * 3/51). Thus the chance of not being dealt AA is 1- 1/221 (roughly .9955). The chance no one being dealt AA at a ten person table is (1-1/221)^10 or about .9557. If my math is right, I think this means there is a 50% chance that no one will be dealt AA in ~15 hands.

P = prob no one dealt AA at full (10) table = .9557
X = # hands

.5 = P^x

.5^(1/x) = P

Log(base .5) P = (1/x)

X=15.28

Someone check my math, I was never as good at stats and logs as calculus